On the 1,000th day of the war, Gaza’s fate is absent from the US-Iranian memorandum that paused the wider Middle East conflict. Despite a ceasefire declared in October 2025, Israeli military operations continue, with a drone strike killing a child in Gaza City on 3 July and tank and artillery fire reported across the Strip. UN bodies record 275 children killed by Israeli forces since the truce took effect, and 96 per cent of Gaza’s children report feeling that death is imminent. The humanitarian crisis remains severe, with residents describing a daily struggle for water, food and safety.

Viewed from Gaza, the ceasefire exists only on paper. “We can be killed at any time,” a 14-year-old girl told Save the Children. Palestinian residents say the world has forgotten them as attention shifted to the US-Iran war. Israel insists that Hamas must fully disarm before any political transition, and its forces continue to strike what they describe as military targets. Hamas refuses to surrender weapons without guarantees of an alternative Palestinian governing authority. According to analysts in European and Israeli security circles, Iran’s calculations have shifted: Tehran now places greater value on preserving Hezbollah as a pillar of regional balance, and views Hamas’s strategic value as diminished after the October 2023 attack, which Iranian officials reportedly did not seek.

Behind the scenes, negotiations over Gaza’s future are under way in Cairo, bringing together Palestinian factions including Hamas, the US-established Board of Peace, and regional players Qatar and Turkey. Diplomatic sources told Agence France-Presse that the talks are working on a roadmap combining gradual Hamas disarmament with the creation of transitional governing authorities. However, Israeli media report that the government in Tel Aviv would reject such a framework. A Western diplomat based in Jerusalem described the absence of Gaza from the US-Iran deal as reflecting political paralysis rather than progress, noting that “no credible political framework exists for the day after.”

The war began with Hamas’s attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, drawing in Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, and eventually leading to direct US-Iranian hostilities. Ceasefires on the Israeli-Lebanese and US-Iranian fronts were reached in April 2026, and a US-Iran memorandum of understanding followed in June, but it made no mention of Gaza. Analysts in London and Washington note that the omission signals a broader reordering of regional priorities, with the Palestinian question no longer driving alignment. The Cairo process remains the only active diplomatic track, but as one analyst observed, “reconstruction remains out of reach, and nothing changes for the people on the ground.” The next round of talks is expected to continue, though no date has been set.