A wave of fiscal pressure is rolling through advanced and emerging economies simultaneously. France’s prime minister described the country’s debt and deficit position as “preoccupying, even grave”, with the deficit stuck at 5.1% of GDP and borrowing costs among the highest in Europe. Kenya’s National Treasury reported a Sh90.1 billion revenue miss for the fiscal year to June 2026, while Ghana’s first-quarter 2026 revenue fell 4.5% short of target, compelling a 29% cut in expenditure. In Colombia, the outgoing government left a tax-reform proposal on the new Congress’s table as debt-service costs in the 2027 budget were projected to jump 40% in real terms.

The immediate causes vary but share common threads. Overambitious revenue targets collided with external shocks—the Iran conflict pushed up energy prices, hitting fuel-importing nations and forcing Kenya to halve VAT on petroleum at a cost of Sh32 billion. Structural weaknesses in tax collection are evident: Ghana’s Q1 VAT, excise, and import-duty receipts all fell double digits below target, while Kenya’s non-tax revenues underperformed by nearly Sh58 billion. Russia, by contrast, posted a June budget surplus of 196 billion roubles, yet its first-half deficit reached 2.5% of GDP as oil and gas revenues dropped 22.7% year on year.

Policy responses are diverging along a fault line between spending restraint and revenue-raising. In Paris, Prime Minister Lecornu ruled out tax increases and proposed trimming drug reimbursements and introducing a bonus-malus system to push ministries towards digital investment, while warning that blocking a budget before the 2027 presidential election would “condemn” the next administration’s first year. Kenya’s Treasury overshot its domestic borrowing target by Sh161.7 billion to plug the deficit, and Ghana’s opposition accused the government of resorting to loans to fund flagship education programmes that were previously financed from local revenue. Nigeria offered a counter-narrative: federal tax collections surged 51% in the first half of 2026 to N21.6 trillion, a jump officials linked to digitalisation, tighter oil-revenue controls, and a new tax law that also triggered the deregistration of 100,000 non-compliant companies.

In Latin America, Colombia’s fiscal debate is shaped by the transition of power. The Petro government’s last-minute tax bill seeks to raise 21.9 trillion pesos through a wealth tax, a higher levy on digital platforms, and a phased VAT increase on fossil fuels, but the incoming administration of Abelardo de la Espriella campaigned on no new taxes and a leaner state. The autonomous fiscal rule committee estimates net debt will hit 61% of GDP in 2026, the highest on record, and warns the primary deficit gap is twice as wide as the government projects. The next factual milestones are the autumn budget debates in Paris and Bogotá, Kenya’s execution of its new 3.6 trillion-shilling revenue target, and Nigeria’s continued enforcement of filing requirements under the 2026 tax code.