Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared on Saturday that the current Israeli government “must not be allowed to spread the smell of gunpowder and blood in our region again,” as he welcomed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding mediated by Pakistan. Speaking alongside Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Istanbul, Erdoğan said the “Islamabad Agreement” had allowed the world to “breathe a sigh of relief,” but warned that Ankara was closely monitoring what he described as Israeli attempts to undermine the accord.

According to Turkish and regional sources, the memorandum includes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, understandings on Iran’s nuclear programme and a timeline toward a final deal. Erdoğan’s remarks reflect Ankara’s consistent position that regional stability can only be achieved through diplomatic channels involving the states directly concerned. “No solution that does not rely on the countries of the region will be sustainable,” he said, adding that any outcome imposed from outside the region’s will would not endure. The Pakistani prime minister’s presence underscored Islamabad’s central role as mediator, a function it has pursued alongside Qatar, which hosted the most recent indirect talks between US and Iranian delegations.

Viewed from Tel Aviv, the agreement has raised concern among Israeli officials, who, according to regional analysts, fear it may ease pressure on Tehran’s military posture and its support for allied groups. Turkish officials, however, have repeatedly accused Israel of prolonging regional conflicts to ensure its political survival, citing intensifying Israeli operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. In parallel, Turkey’s deepening military presence in the Horn of Africa—including a space and missile launch site in Somalia, first reported by Le Monde—has drawn attention from Israeli defence circles as a potential long-range threat. Erdoğan’s call for a regional oversight mechanism, mentioned by Iranian media, suggests Ankara intends to position itself as a guarantor alongside Pakistan, potentially complicating an already fragile diplomatic equilibrium.

Implementation of the US-Iran memorandum remains uncertain, as both sides launched retaliatory strikes last week following disputes over its terms. Iranian deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran will establish a communication channel with Washington to report perceived violations. Erdoğan offered Turkish support for such monitoring efforts, stating that his government would back “every step that reduces tensions.” Meanwhile, Ankara and Islamabad announced a new cooperation framework spanning energy, transport, critical minerals, information technology and defence, alongside a bilateral trade target of $5 billion. The next round of talks is expected to take place in the coming weeks, with Turkey’s vocal backing adding a new layer to the diplomatic push, even as its own strategic moves fuel unease in Israel.