The El Niño climate pattern has officially begun, the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) confirmed in early June, with sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific already showing sustained warming. The agency now estimates an 81 per cent probability that the event will reach ‘very strong’ intensity between October and December, placing it among the most powerful since modern records began in 1950. The World Meteorological Organization has drawn comparisons with the destructive episodes of 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16.

Across South America, the first tangible effects are being registered. Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) issued storm warnings for Rio Grande do Sul state from Thursday, forecasting rainfall accumulations of 200 to 400 millimetres through late July and wind gusts of up to 100 km/h. Argentine meteorologists, meanwhile, project that the phenomenon will bring intense storms to the country’s central and northern regions beginning in August, with single-day precipitation possibly reaching 300 millimetres in provinces such as Chaco, Santa Fe and Córdoba. In Colombia, the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam) has confirmed the event’s consolidation and warned of rapid strengthening, while the national exporters’ association Analdex cautioned that eight of the country’s ten main agricultural exports—including coffee, bananas and flowers—face direct climate risk.

The precise trajectory and severity remain uncertain. While the CPC’s modelling points to a peak during the northern hemisphere winter, meteorologists caution that conditions could decelerate or accelerate in the coming months. Regional disparities are expected: some areas will confront drought, others excessive rainfall. Analysts in London note that sugar and cocoa are the crops most exposed to El Niño-linked droughts, and the US Department of Agriculture has already projected food price increases of up to 4.7 per cent in 2026, with sugar and cocoa products rising as much as 8.4 per cent. A study by Dartmouth College estimated that the 2015–16 El Niño caused global productivity losses exceeding $7.8 trillion, with economic effects propagating for years.

Authorities across the hemisphere are activating emergency protocols. The governor of Santa Fe, Argentina, convened municipal leaders and allocated a 10-billion-peso emergency fund. In Brazil, civil defence units are monitoring river levels and preparing for possible evacuations, though no mass displacements have been ordered. The phenomenon’s full human and economic toll will depend on its ultimate intensity and duration, both of which remain under active observation.