The United Nations Development Programme released an assessment on Tuesday warning that the ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo could cost African economies up to $3.6 billion and eliminate 328,000 jobs if it spreads beyond the current epicentre and coincides with wider global shocks. Even under a best-case scenario in which transmission is contained within the DRC and Uganda, the report projects real GDP losses exceeding $1 billion in the DRC alone and the loss of 55,000 jobs. The epidemic, caused by the Bundibugyo strain of the virus for which there is no licensed vaccine or treatment, has already infected 1,307 people and killed 377 since being declared on 15 May, according to Congolese government data cited in the assessment.

The economic damage flows less from the direct health toll than from the containment measures imposed to curb it. Quarantines, border closures, transport delays and disruptions to informal cross-border trade are devastating livelihoods in a region where millions depend on unregulated markets. The UNDP describes the outbreak as a “highly regressive poverty shock” that could push an additional 985,000 people into extreme poverty, with women bearing a disproportionate burden because they dominate informal trade and frontline caregiving. The report also estimates that interruptions to maternal and child health services could lead to 2,520 excess infant deaths from non-Ebola causes.

The outbreak is concentrated in the conflict-ridden Ituri province of eastern DRC, which accounts for more than 90 per cent of suspected cases. Uganda has confirmed 20 cases, and health authorities in both countries are tracking potential spread to previously unaffected areas. Congolese officials are tracing contacts in Tshopo and Haut-Uele provinces after a body was transported to Kisangani and two individuals under isolation fled across provincial borders, one of whom tested positive. The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has identified ten other African nations at risk, while France confirmed a case in a doctor returning from the DRC. Separately, Uganda reported an isolated death from Marburg virus disease in a young child, detected during heightened surveillance for Ebola.

The Africa CDC on Tuesday appealed for $18 million in urgent funding to support clinical trials of experimental Ebola treatments that are due to begin this week in Bunia, the capital of Ituri. The programme will test Gilead Sciences’ oral drug obeldesivir as a preventive measure for exposed individuals, and evaluate remdesivir and a Mapp Biopharmaceutical antibody to reduce mortality among infected patients. While vaccine-related studies are largely funded, therapeutic trials remain underfinanced. The UNDP, meanwhile, urged governments to replace blanket border closures with targeted screening, provide direct cash transfers to vulnerable households, and establish emergency financing to maintain essential health services. The start of the trials and the pace of donor commitments will be the next concrete indicators of whether the international response can match the scale of a crisis that, as the UN warns, extends far beyond hospital gates.