The dollar extended its broad advance on Tuesday, with the Mexican peso sliding 0.65 percent to 17.50 per greenback, as data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission revealed that speculative long positions in the US currency had swollen to nearly $40 billion by end-June—the largest wager on dollar strength in more than a decade. The build-up reflects a market conviction, reinforced by Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh’s pledge to restore price stability, that US borrowing costs will remain elevated for a prolonged period, widening the rate differential that draws capital toward the dollar.

In Buenos Aires, the constellation of exchange rates presented a picture of relative calm. The official peso traded at 1,510 to the dollar, while the parallel “blue” rate stood at 1,515, a gap of barely 2 percent that suggests the dismantling of capital controls earlier this year has drained much of the speculative premium. Yet beneath the surface, expectations are shifting. The central bank’s latest survey of market economists, released on 6 July, projects the official rate will slide to 1,673 pesos by December, a gradual but persistent depreciation driven by a slowdown in agricultural dollar liquidation and a diminished pace of reserve accumulation. The dollar card rate, still burdened with a 30 percent tax surcharge, remained the most expensive legal channel at 1,963 pesos.

Elsewhere in the region, the Colombian peso continued to defy the dollar’s strength, firming to 3,362 per dollar. Analysts in Bogotá attribute the appreciation to a surprise 75-basis-point rate hike by the central bank to 12 percent, which widened the carry-trade appeal of local bonds, alongside political calm following the presidential election and heavy issuance of peso-denominated government debt that has attracted foreign inflows. The Venezuelan bolívar, by contrast, has lost over half its value this year, sliding to 675 per dollar, as the managed float fails to contain depreciation. In Nigeria, the naira showed signs of stabilisation: the official rate held near 1,367 per dollar while the parallel market traded around 1,400, a spread of roughly 33 naira that analysts in Lagos say reflects the moderating effect of recent foreign-exchange reforms.

Looking ahead, traders in Mexico City and São Paulo will scrutinise the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting for any signal that the rate-hiking cycle could extend further. In Argentina, the government’s newly unveiled debt-management programme for 2026-2027 and the central bank’s ability to sustain dollar purchases during the seasonally lean second half of the year will determine whether the gradual depreciation path priced by the market remains orderly.