Brent crude slipped to $70 a barrel on Thursday, a level not seen since early March, extending a decline driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of increased supply. The drop, however, has yet to translate into lower prices at the pump in many large fuel-consuming nations, where a combination of tax policy, slow pass-through mechanisms, and the lingering cost of older, pricier crude inventories is keeping retail rates high.

Viewed from Lagos, the asymmetry is stark. Nigeria’s downstream market was deregulated precisely to allow global price movements to reach consumers, yet the pump price of petrol remains above N1,200 per litre in Lagos and near N1,300 elsewhere. Marketers argue that the ex-depot gantry price has not fallen enough to permit reductions, while the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission has publicly noted that dealers are quick to raise prices when crude rises but slow to cut them when it falls. In India, state-run oil marketing companies are still processing crude purchased at higher prices during the West Asia crisis, and the petroleum minister has signalled that a sustained period of low crude would be needed before retail rates are revisited. Private retailer Nayara Energy did cut prices this week, the first such move in over two years, but the dominant state-owned firms have held firm.

In Europe, the picture is complicated by fiscal decisions. Italy allowed a temporary reduction in excise duties on petrol and diesel to expire on 3 July, adding 6.1 euro cents per litre to the pump price overnight. The measure, which had been financed through the extra VAT revenue generated by high energy prices, was not renewed, meaning a full tank now costs roughly €3 more. Spanish fuel prices, by contrast, showed modest daily fluctuations of under 2 percent, with petrol 95 averaging €1.53 per litre and diesel €1.54, according to official data. In Argentina, where the government publishes daily reference prices by province and brand, the range is extreme: YPF’s standard petrol varies from 1,007 pesos per litre in Tierra del Fuego to 1,419 pesos in Corrientes, while Shell’s premium diesel reaches 2,699 pesos in Misiones, reflecting a patchwork of local taxes, logistics costs, and competitive dynamics that often overshadow global crude trends.

The immediate milestone to watch is whether the current contango structure in Brent—signalling near-term oversupply—persists through the summer driving season. If crude remains near $70 for another two to three months, the pressure on state-owned refiners in India and private marketers in Nigeria to pass on savings will intensify. In Italy, the government has not signalled any new intervention on excise duties, leaving consumers to absorb the full tax rate for the first time since early June.