Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith unveiled plans on Thursday for a new oil pipeline that would carry up to one million barrels per day from the province’s bitumen deposits to a Pacific coast terminal near Vancouver. The project, estimated to cost between C$35.2 billion and C$43.7 billion, would follow the existing Trans Mountain corridor and is slated to begin construction by September 2027, with completion expected between 2032 and 2034. The announcement came alongside pledges of C$7 billion to expand the Port of Vancouver and a tripling of liquefied natural gas production capacity through five new terminals over the next decade.

The push to build new export infrastructure is a direct response to the trade confrontation with Washington. Viewed from Calgary, the pipeline is a lifeline for a landlocked energy sector that currently sends nearly all its crude to US refineries, supplying roughly 60 percent of American oil imports. President Donald Trump’s threats of 100 percent tariffs and his refusal this week to authorise a long-term renewal of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement have injected urgency into Ottawa’s diversification agenda. Carney framed the investments as a catalyst for over C$200 billion in new direct investment, declaring that Canada must “move faster, build bigger and work together” to access faster-growing Asian markets.

The project’s viability hinges on a delicate political bargain with British Columbia and coastal First Nations. The federal government has agreed to maintain a longstanding moratorium on oil tanker traffic along the province’s northern coast, a red line for Indigenous communities who warned that lifting the ban would jeopardise their support for other energy projects. British Columbia Premier David Eby, having lost a previous court battle over the Trans Mountain expansion, said his government would not oppose the new pipeline after securing commitments for environmental safeguards and a legally binding framework for economic compensation. Coastal First Nations president Marilyn Slett called the tanker ban’s preservation a “good day,” though environmental groups condemned the expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure as incompatible with climate stability.

Yet the grand external trade strategy contrasts sharply with the stalled effort to dismantle barriers within Canada’s own economic union. A year after Carney’s government passed the One Canadian Economy Act and promised free internal trade by July 2026, provincial obstacles remain entrenched in sectors from wine to construction materials. Winery operators in British Columbia report it is still easier and cheaper to export to Germany than to other provinces. Former TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond notes that global uncertainty has not proved a sufficient catalyst, and intergovernmental meetings this week yielded only renewed calls to meet existing commitments. The parallel stories expose a Canadian trade paradox: while billions are mobilised to reach Asian markets, the country’s own fragmented domestic market continues to leave money, jobs and goods on the table.

The next concrete milestone is the September 2027 target for construction to begin, but significant gaps remain. No oil producers have yet committed to using the pipeline, and financing terms—including the eventual cost to taxpayers—are still under negotiation. Pembina Pipeline Corporation holds a 10 percent stake during construction, with an option to increase to 20 percent once operational, but the Alberta government acknowledges that a full private-sector takeover may be needed down the line. The project’s ultimate fate will depend on whether commercial backers materialise and whether the fragile consensus with British Columbia and First Nations holds through the permitting process.