Russian alcohol production, a bellwether of household spending, contracted sharply in the first half of 2026. Output of vodka fell 4 per cent year on year to 30.1 million decalitres, while overall spirits production dropped 6.8 per cent, according to the federal alcohol regulator. The decline accelerated in June, when cognac output collapsed 26.7 per cent, a slide analysts in Moscow attribute to disrupted supplies of Armenian distillate after a quality-related import ban and to a 16 per cent rise in the minimum retail price. Wine production also retreated, down 12.6 per cent, though cider and mead bucked the trend with double-digit gains.

The pullback extends beyond alcohol. Russian demand for steaks fell 13 per cent by volume in the first quarter, while sales of cheaper minced meat and cutlets rose, data from NTech show. Sausage demand shifted toward lower-cost frankfurters. In commercial vehicles, sales of light trucks under 3.5 tonnes dropped 19 per cent, and medium-duty trucks fell 7 per cent, though June brought a tentative rebound. Viewed from Moscow, the pattern is one of households trading down, not abstaining, as real incomes remain under pressure.

In the automotive sector, the energy transition is redrawing demand maps with striking speed. In Colombia, 4 in 10 new cars registered in the first half were electric or hybrid, a surge of 235 per cent for pure EVs and 75 per cent for hybrids, per industry data. Tesla and BYD dominate the electric segment, while Suzuki and Toyota lead hybrids. Meanwhile, in China, Toyota’s sales fell 17 per cent and Honda’s 35 per cent as consumers switched to electrified models amid high oil prices; Toyota’s EV sales jumped 83 per cent. In Argentina, overall vehicle production dropped 18.3 per cent, though wholesale sales rose 22.5 per cent month on month in June, hinting at a slow demand recovery.

Producers are adjusting supply chains and product mixes. Russian distillers are scrambling to replace Armenian cognac spirit, while meat processors expand minced-meat lines. In Argentina, the government cut export duties to boost auto competitiveness, but the industry association warns that provincial tax burdens remain a structural drag. Chinese joint ventures face overcapacity in petrol models as they rush to launch new-energy vehicles.

The second half will test whether these shifts are cyclical or structural. In Russia, alcohol output is expected to keep falling through year-end, according to market experts cited by Vedomosti. In Argentina, the industry pins recovery hopes on improved financing conditions. In China, Honda sees no near-term catalyst, describing the market environment as “complex”. The next factual milestones are the July production reports from Rosalkogoltabakcontrol and the half-year sales updates from Chinese automakers.