When Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal lead their sides out at AT&T Stadium on Tuesday night, they will carry not only the hopes of two football-obsessed nations but also the narrative weight of a rivalry that has tilted decisively towards Spain in recent knockout encounters. The semifinal of the 2026 World Cup pits the tournament’s most prolific attack against its meanest defence, a collision of styles that has been described by Spain’s coach Luis de la Fuente as “a final before the final.”

France’s route to the last four has been a display of relentless firepower. Didier Deschamps’ side have scored 16 goals in six matches, winning every game inside 90 minutes. Mbappé, with eight goals, is tied with Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot, while Ousmane Dembélé has added five and Michael Olise has supplied five assists. The 2-0 quarter-final victory over Morocco, secured by a Mbappé strike and a Dembélé finish after a missed first-half penalty, underlined both their cutting edge and their capacity to wear down stubborn opponents. For Deschamps, who will step down after a 14-year tenure at the end of the tournament, the match offers a chance to guide France to a third consecutive final – a feat achieved only by West Germany and Brazil.

Spain’s progress has been built on a defensive record that borders on the immaculate. Until a late consolation for Belgium in the quarter-finals, Unai Simón had not conceded for 650 minutes, breaking a World Cup record that had stood since 1990. The 2-1 win over Belgium, however, also revealed a growing reliance on the impact of Mikel Merino, who has now scored the decisive goal as a substitute in back-to-back knockout matches. De la Fuente’s team have controlled possession and territory throughout the tournament, yet they face a French side that has shown it can strike devastatingly on the counter.

Viewed from Madrid, the confidence is rooted in recent history. Spain have won the last two competitive semifinals between the sides – a 2-1 victory at Euro 2024 and a 5-4 thriller in the 2025 Nations League – and lead the overall head-to-head with 18 wins from 38 meetings. In Paris, however, analysts point to France’s perfect record in World Cup semifinals since 1998: on all four occasions they have reached the final, and they have won their last three without conceding a goal. The only previous World Cup clash, in the 2006 round of 16, saw a Zinedine Zidane-inspired France come from behind to win 3-1.

The winner will face either England or Argentina in the final, a prospect that adds further lustre to a contest already freighted with significance. For Spain, it is a chance to reach a first final since their 2010 triumph; for France, an opportunity to cement a dynasty. In the Texas heat, the tactical duel between Deschamps’ pragmatism and De la Fuente’s possession-based approach will determine which of these familiar foes takes the next step towards the trophy.