The dollar tumbled to a six-year low against the Colombian peso on Thursday, touching an intraday floor of 3,354 pesos and closing the gap to levels last recorded in January 2020. The average traded price of 3,362.67 pesos represented a drop of 40.68 pesos from the official reference rate, extending a structural decline that began in early July. The move was fuelled by a fresh round of carry-trade inflows and by unexpectedly weak US employment data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its rate-tightening cycle.

Carry traders are borrowing in economies with near-zero or very low interest rates—Switzerland and Japan were cited by analysts in Bogotá—and deploying the funds into Colombian assets yielding 12% after the central bank’s latest 75-basis-point rate increase. Mauricio Acevedo, a currency strategist at Corficolombiana, noted that the next-day market had already broken below the spot minimum, signalling that the peso could test levels around 3,360. The US labour department reported that only 57,000 jobs were created in June, well below the 129,000 recorded in May and beneath market forecasts, weakening the dollar globally.

In Argentina, the exchange-rate dynamic moved in the opposite direction. The official wholesale dollar rose to 1,489 pesos, its highest since November 2025, after a monthly gain of nearly 5% in June. Analysts in Buenos Aires attributed the slide to a seasonal drop in agricultural export settlements, a stronger global dollar, and a local rebalancing of peso liquidity following central-bank absorption operations. The BCRA has intervened in futures markets and placed dollar-linked bonds to contain depreciation expectations, but futures contracts still price a gradual crawl to around 1,655 pesos by December. The government is seeking a new equilibrium that allows reserve accumulation without reigniting inflation.

Mexico’s peso, by contrast, traded in a narrow band around 17.46–17.56 per dollar, supported by nearshoring investments and World Cup-related inflows. The calm was tested by Washington’s decision not to renew the USMCA trade pact in its current form, with the US trade representative citing unresolved deficiencies. Mexican officials, however, struck an optimistic note, with Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard saying he saw no substantive obstacle that could not be resolved. The next round of bilateral talks is scheduled for 20 July, a date that currency desks across the region are watching for signals on trade-policy direction and its potential to shift capital flows.