China’s exports jumped 27% year-on-year in June, the strongest pace in four months, propelling the monthly trade surplus to a record $125.6 billion, customs data showed on Tuesday. The figure far exceeded economists’ forecasts of an 18.2% rise and marked a sharp acceleration from May’s 19.4% gain. Imports surged 36%, the fastest in five years, lifting the surplus well above the $105.4 billion recorded a month earlier. The data underscore how global investment in artificial intelligence is reshaping trade flows, even as broader demand in major economies slows.

The export surge was driven primarily by booming demand for AI-related hardware. Integrated circuit exports nearly doubled in the first half of the year, reaching $177.3 billion, while shipments of automatic data-processing machines and parts rose 41.3% to $138.1 billion. A customs vice-minister, Wang Jun, attributed the performance to a precise match between Chinese manufacturing and diverse global demand. Analysts in Beijing note that aggressive pricing by Chinese exporters and a rush by US retailers to stock goods four to six weeks ahead of expected tariff increases later this year added further thrust. Exports to the United States rose 13.9% to $43.5 billion, leaving a bilateral surplus of $28.9 billion.

Viewed from Washington, the trade imbalance remains a source of friction despite a May visit by President Donald Trump that yielded no breakthrough. China’s surplus with the European Union widened to $32.9 billion in June, up from $30.7 billion in May, a trend that officials in Brussels and other European capitals view with concern. Meanwhile, Russia-China trade grew 25.6% in the first half to $134.2 billion, with Russian exports to China rising 23.3%, according to Chinese customs data. In Taipei, Academia Sinica raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Taiwan to 10.16%, citing AI-driven demand for advanced semiconductors and servers, though it cautioned that the durability of the technology investment cycle remains uncertain.

The external strength provides a critical buffer for China’s $20 trillion economy, where a prolonged property slump and weak household spending continue to weigh on domestic activity. Factory-gate prices fell again in June as manufacturers cut prices to secure orders, while retail sales and fixed-asset investment remained subdued. The next factual milestone arrives on Wednesday, when China releases its second-quarter GDP figures, offering a clearer picture of whether the export engine can sustain momentum against a backdrop of fragile internal demand and unresolved trade disputes.