Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, is on the verge of becoming the United Kingdom’s next prime minister after securing the backing of 322 of the 403 Labour MPs, leaving him just one nomination short of the threshold that would mathematically preclude any rival candidate. The support, confirmed on the first day of the party’s leadership nomination period, follows a by-election victory in Makerfield last month that returned him to Westminster. Burnham, a figure from Labour’s ‘soft left’, is expected to be formally appointed party leader by the end of next week and to take office at 10 Downing Street on 20 July, succeeding Keir Starmer, who resigned after a poor local election performance in May.

In his first major policy intervention as prime minister-in-waiting, Burnham issued a video statement apologising for Labour’s initial response to Israel’s military action in Gaza, saying the party ‘didn’t get it right’ and that the UK was ‘too slow to call for a ceasefire’. He pledged to increase pressure on the government of Benjamin Netanyahu through further sanctions on individuals and entities, and to examine a possible ban on trade in goods from illegal Israeli settlements. While he condemned Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack and antisemitic incidents in the UK, he also stated that there is ‘increasing evidence that war crimes were committed in Gaza’, adding that such determinations should be made by international courts, not politicians. The remarks signal a clear departure from the Starmer government’s earlier emphasis on Israel’s right to self-defence.

The intervention drew sharply divergent reactions. The Board of Deputies of British Jews and the Jewish Leadership Council said they had conveyed ‘significant concerns’ to Burnham’s team, arguing that antisemitism cannot be confronted without addressing all its drivers, including those who use ‘distorted or one-sided portrayals of the situation in Gaza’ to single out the Jewish state. At the same time, the deputy leader of the Green Party of England and Wales accused Burnham of hiding behind international courts, because acknowledging that the British government knows war crimes are being committed would create a legal duty to immediately halt arms sales to Israel. Within Labour, the apology was welcomed by many members who had pressed for a tougher line, but it also exposed the party to renewed scrutiny over its relationship with British Jewish communities.

Beyond Gaza, Burnham’s allies have signalled a broader shift in style and substance. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy told the BBC that a Burnham government would ‘wear our hearts on our sleeve more’ and might consider borrowing to fund increased defence spending, rather than reallocating existing budgets. He also faces immediate pressure from 80 Labour MPs who have urged him to abandon Starmer’s planned migration curbs. The leadership nomination period closes on Thursday, and with no other candidate having declared, Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour leader the following day. His formal appointment as prime minister on 20 July will then open a premiership already defined by a recalibration of the UK’s Middle East policy and a promise of a more emotionally resonant politics.