The median forecast for Brazil’s benchmark IPCA consumer price index in 2026 fell to 5.30% from 5.33%, the first downward revision after sixteen consecutive weekly increases, according to the central bank’s Focus survey released on Monday. The shift, though marginal, interrupted a persistent upward drift that had pushed expectations well beyond the 3% target and the 4.5% tolerance ceiling set by the National Monetary Council. For 2027, however, the median projection edged up for a seventh straight week, to 4.18%, while the 2028 estimate held at 3.70%, suggesting that analysts in Brasília see only a gradual disinflation path.

In Bogotá, the central bank governor delivered a starker message to Congress: inflation is unlikely to return to the 3% target before 2028. Leonardo Villar said the consumer price index would remain above 6% this year, possibly near 6.5%, as food costs, utility increases and the lingering risk of a stronger El Niño weather pattern continue to feed price pressures. The bank’s monetary policy decisions, he noted, are calibrated to have their main effect on 2027 inflation, not on the current year, implying a slow and conditional normalisation.

Viewed from Washington, the latest US services purchasing managers’ indices offered a mixed picture. The S&P Global composite PMI rose to 51.9 in June from 51.5, while the ISM services index slipped to 54 from 54.5, with new orders cooling but employment rebounding. Input prices remained elevated, though they eased from May, as tariffs and higher fuel costs fed through. The data reinforced the sense of an American economy expanding modestly but still generating enough demand-side heat to keep the Federal Reserve cautious.

For Latin America’s two largest economies, the interplay of stubborn services inflation, food-price shocks and exchange-rate pass-through is complicating the policy outlook. Brazil’s Selic rate is seen falling from 14.25% to 14% by year-end, with the next Copom meeting scheduled for 4–5 August. In Colombia, the central bank’s projections imply that any further easing will be measured and heavily data-dependent. The Focus survey also showed stable GDP growth expectations for Brazil at 1.99% in 2026 and a steady exchange-rate forecast of R$5.20 per dollar, indicating that markets are not yet pricing a sharp deterioration in activity or the currency.

The next factual milestones are the Copom decision in early August and the evolution of El Niño conditions, which could delay Colombia’s disinflation further. Both central banks have signalled that the road back to target will be longer than earlier hoped, a message that is likely to anchor near-term rate expectations across the region.