The Argentine government moved to calm markets on Monday by presenting a plan to meet dollar-denominated debt obligations for the remainder of 2026 and 2027, a day on which the informal ‘blue’ dollar touched $1,510, erasing the gap with the official rate for the first time in months. The convergence reflects both the central bank’s managed crawl and a growing reluctance to hold peso-denominated carry-trade positions as the upper band of the exchange-rate corridor sits at a distant $1,796.13 and the seasonal decline in agricultural dollar supply begins to bite. Analysts in Buenos Aires note that the narrowing spread—just 1.4% against the wholesale rate—signals that the market is pricing in higher devaluation risk despite the BCRA’s continued purchases of foreign currency, which totalled $1,418 million in June alone.

In Mexico City, the peso traded at 17.44 per dollar, a marginal gain of 0.13%, with volatility at 4.16%, well below the annual benchmark. Traders attribute the stability to expectations of nearshoring-related investment and the foreign-exchange inflows anticipated from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, alongside a cautious outlook for US monetary policy. The Finance Ministry projects the exchange rate at 19.70 pesos by year-end, while private banks see a range of 19.30 to 20.50, implying a gradual depreciation once the supportive factors fade. The renegotiation of the USMCA trade pact and the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts remain the key external variables.

Colombia’s peso, meanwhile, strengthened to 3,330 per dollar, extending a decline of more than 1,000 pesos since January 2025. Bogotá-based economists point to three drivers: the central bank’s surprise 75-basis-point rate hike to 12%, which widened the interest-rate differential with the Fed; a weaker-than-expected US jobs report that softened the dollar globally; and the election of a government perceived as market-friendly, which has attracted capital inflows. The outgoing administration’s strategy of swapping external debt for local-currency TES bonds has also reduced the country’s dollar exposure, though it has left limited room for further domestic issuance in the second half of the year.

Viewed from Washington, the US labour-market data released last week weakened the dollar across most emerging-market currencies, but Argentina’s idiosyncratic risks kept the peso under pressure. The immediate test for Buenos Aires is the reception of Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s debt roadmap, which will determine whether the fragile equilibrium between the official and parallel exchange rates can hold through the second semester.