The United States is set to decide by 15 July whether to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Brazilian goods under its Section 301 investigation, with an additional 12.5 per cent from a parallel forced-labour probe potentially lifting total duties to 37.5 per cent. After a strategy meeting with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 10 July, Brazilian officials view the imposition as the most probable outcome, citing public remarks by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that “a great distance” remains between the two sides. A final working-group meeting is expected before the deadline, but Brasília has signalled it will not make concessions it considers unjustified, including on the Pix instant-payment system.

The tariffs originate from a USTR review of Brazilian practices ranging from digital commerce and deforestation to intellectual-property protection. Brazil has presented a roadmap of remedial measures, yet the core US demand for tariff liberalisation on ethanol and other sensitive goods has not been met. Washington’s broader trade posture reinforces the expectation of action: the administration is preparing new levies on forced labour and excess industrial capacity to replace expiring Section 122 tariffs later this month, and has shown limited willingness to exempt strategic partners without reciprocal market access.

Business groups in both countries have mobilised against the measures. A joint letter from Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry, the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil, and the US Chamber of Commerce warned that tariffs would disrupt highly integrated supply chains and raise costs for American consumers, particularly in sectors such as soluble coffee and wood products where Brazilian imports lack domestic substitutes. The CNI estimates 4,200 products worth $15 billion would be affected. Separately, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro—a pre-candidate and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro—has blamed Lula for the tariff threat and pledged to negotiate with China over a 55 per cent surcharge on Brazilian beef exports above a quota, a measure Beijing imposed in December 2025, adding a parallel trade pressure.

Brazil’s Foreign Ministry has mapped 43 US companies and associations that oppose the tariffs. If the decision is confirmed, the government is expected to issue a formal protest and may consider activating the Reciprocity Law, which permits retaliation against trade barriers. The immediate milestone is the USTR announcement on 15 July, after which Brazilian technical teams will assess the scope of the measures and decide on next steps, including potential World Trade Organization action or continued bilateral negotiations.