Brazil’s automotive market is on course to exceed 3 million light- and heavy-vehicle sales in 2026 for the first time since 2014, after first-half registrations climbed 16 percent year on year to 2.7 million units. The surge, described by the national dealers’ federation Fenabrave as the strongest January–June period since 2011, prompted the manufacturers’ association Anfavea to raise its full-year growth forecast to 11.7 percent. The expansion is being fuelled by a government sustainable-car programme and a sharp rise in electrified models, which together added roughly 200,000 units to the half-year tally.

Yet the recovery is uneven. Domestic production is forecast to grow only 5.8 percent to 2.8 million units, its highest since 2019 but well behind the pace of sales. Anfavea’s president, Igor Calvet, warned that a significant share of the demand is being met by imports, particularly from China, which benefit from tariff rates below the global average and duty-free entry for electric vehicles assembled from semi-knocked-down kits. The dynamic has also reshaped the used-vehicle market: sales of second-hand trucks jumped 300 percent in the first half to 289,000 units, as transport operators used older models as trade-ins for new purchases under the Move Brasil incentive scheme.

Argentina presents a stark contrast. Registrations of new vehicles fell 9.9 percent in the first six months to 294,181 units, with dealers reporting excess stock and hesitant demand. In response, automakers including Renault, Honda and Stellantis’s Citroën brand have rolled out discounts of up to 12 million pesos on selected models. Acara, the dealers’ association, sees tentative signs of recovery but insists that long-term financing tools and lower interest rates are needed to clear inventory.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia is preparing to open the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) on 30 July with a record 65 brands, including 10 first-time participants. The event will host the regional debut of the Honda Super-One electric city car and Hyundai’s Ioniq 9 SUV, as manufacturers bet on a market where wholesale deliveries rose 15.8 percent in the first half to 436,564 units. Gaikindo’s chairman, Putu Juli Ardika, framed the show as proof that Indonesia is not merely a sales destination but a strategic production base, with exports up 7.7 percent to 251,705 units.

Europe’s commercial-vehicle segment, by contrast, is stalling. Italian registrations of light commercial vehicles dropped 12.1 percent in June, dragging the half-year total down 4.3 percent to 94,759 units. A €180 million government fund for zero-emission vans and trucks remains frozen pending the activation of an online application platform, and industry body UNRAE warns that the resulting uncertainty has delayed fleet-renewal orders for eight months. The next milestone for the Italian market is the operational launch of that platform, while GIIAS 2026 will test whether the wave of new entrants can convert Indonesia’s sales momentum into sustained electrification.