Global air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, increased 6.0% year on year in May 2026, according to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Capacity rose 1.9%, extending a run of 25 consecutive months of annual trade growth. The headline figure, however, masks sharp regional divergence: African carriers posted a 13.3% demand surge, North American airlines 10.5%, Asia-Pacific 8.0% and Europe 6.7%, while Middle Eastern carriers recorded an 8.9% contraction, which IATA attributed to the continuing impact of regional conflict. Latin American and Caribbean airlines saw a modest 1.9% increase, with capacity up 5.6%.

Viewed from Mexico City, the trade data tell a more complex story. Mexican exports jumped 25.4% year on year in May, reaching $69.5 billion, and are up 22.6% for the first five months of the year. Analysts in Mexico attribute much of the acceleration to front-loading by US importers seeking to build inventories before potential tariff increases tied to the review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement and a Section 301 investigation by the US Department of Commerce. The hypothesis is reinforced by a 29.8% rise in imports of intermediate goods, the inputs that feed export industries. Beneath the short-term noise, a structural shift is under way: Mexico has displaced China as the top supplier of goods to the United States, with a market share near 17%, while China has fallen to fourth place with less than 7%, partly because Mexican goods face an average effective tariff of just 4.1% under the trade pact.

In South America, Argentina’s 37 regional productive complexes exported a record $4.032 billion in the January–May period, the highest value in 22 years, according to data from the Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Secretariat. Volume rose 8.5% to 3.12 million tonnes, and average prices increased 4.4% to $1,290 per tonne. Aquaculture and fisheries, apiculture, aromatics and heavy vegetables all recorded their best start to a year since 2004, with Brazil, China and the United States as the main destinations. The performance, officials in Buenos Aires note, reflects a more diversified and competitive export structure.

IATA’s figures also show that air cargo growth was concentrated on specific trade lanes. Asia–North America led, followed by Africa–Asia, intra-Europe and Europe–Asia, while Gulf-linked corridors remained severely disrupted. The global manufacturing output PMI rose to 53.5, but the new export orders index stayed below the 50-point threshold at 49.6, indicating that the expansion was driven by selected flows rather than a broad-based rise in global exports. Jet fuel prices fell 16.3% month on month but remained 93.5% above year-earlier levels, squeezing carrier margins even as higher load factors and yields provided some offset.

The next factual milestone is the progression of the US trade policy reviews. The T-MEC review and the Section 301 investigation into Chinese trade practices are both on the 2026 calendar, and any tariff decisions that emerge will determine whether the Mexican export surge proves transitory or consolidates a longer-term nearshoring trend. Meanwhile, the trajectory of Middle Eastern air cargo volumes remains tied to the course of the regional conflict.