The Afghan Taliban government announced on 30 June that its forces launched drone strikes on what it described as Islamic State (ISIS-K) bases inside Pakistan, targeting locations in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. The operation came two days after Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan territory killed at least 28 civilians, including women and children, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). The Taliban said the sites were used to plan attacks on Afghan civilians and that no civilians were harmed in its own strikes.

Pakistan’s military said its air defence systems intercepted and shot down four rudimentary drones launched from Afghanistan into Balochistan, warning that any further provocation would receive a “befitting response”. Islamabad maintained that its 28 June ground and air operations in Paktia, Paktika and Kunar provinces killed 29 militants and were a response to recent terrorist attacks, including a suicide bombing in Karachi that killed three paramilitary personnel. Afghan officials, however, put the civilian death toll from those strikes at 36, with more than 160 injured, and described the attack as a “cowardly act”. India’s Ministry of External Affairs condemned the Pakistani strikes as a “blatant act of aggression” and a threat to regional stability, accusing Islamabad of externalising internal failures.

The exchange of fire has shattered a ceasefire agreed last October and deepened a pattern of cross-border violence that has killed dozens in recent months. The Afghan Taliban’s targeting of ISIS-K positions on Pakistani soil introduces a new dimension to the conflict, as Kabul has long accused Islamabad of allowing the group to use its territory to stage attacks inside Afghanistan. Pakistan, in turn, alleges that the Afghan Taliban shelters Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants who carry out cross-border raids. Both governments deny the accusations, and independent verification of casualty figures and targets remains difficult.

Viewed from regional capitals, the escalation revives fears of a wider conflagration along the porous 2,600-kilometre border. In February, clashes left dozens dead, and a Pakistani strike on a drug rehabilitation centre in Kabul in March killed hundreds, according to Afghan officials. Analysts in South Asia note that the absence of a functioning diplomatic channel between the two neighbours, combined with domestic political pressures in both countries, makes de-escalation unlikely in the near term. No new talks have been announced, and the border remains on high alert.