The familiar swoosh will be absent from the World Cup final. Argentina’s 1-0 win over England in the semifinals on Wednesday extinguished Nike’s last chance to feature on the sport’s biggest stage, guaranteeing that both finalists will wear the three stripes of Adidas when Argentina meet Spain on Sunday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. Spain had earlier defeated France, the other Nike-sponsored semifinalist, to set up a showdown that, viewed from the boardrooms of Beaverton, Oregon, represents a stark reversal of fortune.

Adidas entered the tournament as kit supplier to 14 of the 48 participating nations, including heavyweights Argentina, Spain, Germany and Mexico. Nike equipped 12, among them Brazil, France, England and the hosts the United States and Canada. Puma, with 11 teams, completed a trio that together accounted for more than three-quarters of all sides. Yet the knockout rounds whittled the field to a duel between the two giants: Adidas with Argentina and Spain, Nike with England and France. The European pair’s elimination means the German brand will contest its fourth final in the last five World Cups, while Nike misses the showpiece for the first time since 2014.

The branding contest unfolds against a backdrop of diverging corporate fortunes. Nike has leaned heavily on the tournament to revive momentum after years of ceding market share, particularly in Europe and China. Its stock has shed nearly a third of its value this year, and executives last month signalled that CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround strategy faces significant headwinds. Analysts in London note that even a World Cup boost was unlikely to alter that trajectory. Adidas, by contrast, has been gaining ground: its share of the footwear market climbed to 19.2% in June from 16.0% a year earlier, according to research firm M Science, while Nike continued to lose share. The German company described the final as a “moment of pride” but declined to share sales projections.

Nike’s campaign, built around the “Rip the Script” film starring Kylian Mbappé and Kim Kardashian, generated 1.5 billion views in its first week, and pre-tournament national-team kit sales were 2.5 times higher than at the same stage before Qatar 2022. A spokesman said the company’s vision for football “has never been tied to a single moment.” Yet the imagery of Sunday’s final will be exclusively Adidas, from the players’ shirts to the official match ball. The immediate sporting consequence is a third-place play-off on Saturday between France and England—a Nike-only affair that will offer a consolation prize in the battle for visibility before the main event.