半导体抛售潮席卷全球股市，美伊冲突推高油价加剧市场动荡
台积电上调资本支出引发AI投资回报疑虑，叠加中东地缘风险升级，全球主要股指普遍下挫，亚洲科技板块承压尤甚。
全球股市周四遭遇广泛抛售，半导体板块成为核心拖累。台积电公布二季度利润同比大增77%，但将全年资本支出预期从600亿美元上调至640亿美元，这一超出预期的投资计划重新点燃了市场对人工智能基础设施投入回报可持续性的担忧。费城半导体指数重挫4.29%，欧洲半导体指数下跌5.02%，韩国KOSPI指数暴跌逾6%，反映出投资者对芯片行业高估值与巨额资本开支之间平衡的重新评估。
抛售潮从亚洲蔓延至欧美。在首尔，三星电子和SK海力士等权重股领跌，KOSPI指数本月已从高点回落近20%。日本日经225指数下跌2.63%，而台积电在台湾本地股价虽小幅收高，其美国存托凭证却下跌2.3%。欧洲Stoxx 600指数微跌，伦敦富时100逆势上涨0.54%，部分受益于医疗保健等防御性板块的支撑。美股方面，标普500和纳斯达克分别下跌0.51%和1.47%，科技与通信服务板块领跌，但上涨股票数量多于下跌，显示市场内部出现轮动。
与此同时，美国与伊朗之间的军事冲突显著升级，为市场注入新的地缘政治风险溢价。美军对伊朗境内目标发动新一轮打击，伊朗则报复性攻击美国在科威特和约旦的基地，霍尔木兹海峡通行受阻的担忧推动布伦特原油价格一度突破每桶85美元。油价持续高企加剧了全球通胀回升的忧虑，德国十年期国债收益率升至5月以来新高，市场对欧洲央行可能被迫进一步加息的预期升温。美国方面，尽管零售销售和就业数据展现经济韧性，但达拉斯和堪萨斯城联储官员均表示通胀仍过高，降息时机尚不成熟。
对中国而言，全球芯片股动荡可能通过供应链预期和投资者情绪向A股半导体板块传导，而油价上涨将增加能源进口成本，对下游制造业形成压力。市场焦点正转向企业盈利能否支撑AI相关高估值，以及中东局势是否会进一步扰乱能源供应。摩根士丹利等机构建议投资者在保持对AI结构性受益者敞口的同时，增配与AI主题关联度较低的板块。未来数日，美国与伊朗冲突的演变以及更多科技巨头财报的披露，将成为决定市场短期方向的关键变量。
| 大西洋／英语圈媒体 | −0.20 | neutral |
|---|---|---|
| 拉丁美洲媒体 | −0.50 | critical |
| 印度及南亚媒体 | −0.10 | neutral |
Market participants observe a day of mixed trading, with gains in some sectors offsetting losses in chips. The geopolitical backdrop is a factor but not the primary driver.
By presenting the market movements as a routine fluctuation and downplaying the geopolitical element, the narrative normalizes the decline and avoids alarm.
The atlantica bloc omits the direct link between US-Iran hostilities and market declines, instead treating geopolitical risk as a background factor.
Investors are fleeing risk as US-Iran tensions escalate and semiconductor overinvestment fears mount. The technology rally is over, and markets are bracing for further losses.
By framing the market decline as a direct consequence of both geopolitical conflict and sectoral overvaluation, the narrative creates a dual threat that justifies a defensive stance.
The latinoamericana bloc omits the countervailing positive data, such as solid earnings and the fact that some markets (e.g., London) were exceptions, focusing solely on the negative narrative.
The market decline is a technical correction driven by the outsized weight of semiconductor stocks in major indices. Underlying earnings and economic data remain solid, suggesting the sell-off is sector-specific.
By attributing the decline to the structural weight of chips in indices and highlighting positive fundamentals, the narrative isolates the problem and downplays systemic risk.
The indiana_sudasiatica bloc omits the Middle East tensions as a driver, instead attributing the decline solely to semiconductor sector dynamics.