The group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is all but complete, and the identity of the 32 teams that will contest the first ever knockout round of 32 is almost fully known. With the final matches in Groups J, K and L still to be played, 28 nations have already secured their passage, leaving just four spots to be claimed. The new format – 12 groups of four, with the top two from each advancing automatically and the eight best third-placed sides also progressing – has reshaped the tournament’s rhythm, keeping more teams alive deeper into the opening phase and producing a knockout bracket that blends familiar powers with historic first-timers.

Belgium became the latest side to confirm their place, overwhelming New Zealand 5-1 in Vancouver to top Group G on goal difference ahead of Egypt, who drew 1-1 with Iran. Spain edged Uruguay 1-0 to win Group H, a result that also guaranteed Ghana’s progression from Group L before the Black Stars had even kicked a ball against Croatia. African football analysts note that six of the continent’s ten representatives have now reached the last 32: Morocco, South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana and Cape Verde, the latter advancing as group runners-up despite drawing all three of their matches. The three host nations – Mexico, Canada and the United States – all progressed, as did every previous World Cup winner in the field: Brazil, Argentina, Germany, France and England.

The pathway for third-placed teams has been a defining feature of the expanded tournament. Five sides have already secured knockout berths from third position: Sweden (four points, goal difference zero), Ecuador (four points, zero), Bosnia and Herzegovina (four points, minus one), Paraguay (four points, minus two) and Senegal, who became the first team with only three points to qualify after a 5-0 demolition of Iraq left them with a plus-two goal difference. The threshold for safety has fallen low enough that four points are now mathematically sufficient, a fact that has shaped the risk calculus in the final round of group fixtures.

Three groups remain unresolved. In Group J, Argentina have already won the section, but the runners-up spot and a potential best-third-place slot are still contested. Group K will see Colombia and Portugal, both already qualified, determine who tops the group, while the third-placed team’s fate hangs on results elsewhere. Group L features England and Ghana already through, with Croatia still in the hunt for a best-third-place ticket. Asian media highlight that Iran, South Korea and Uzbekistan are among the sides whose fates will be decided on the final day, alongside Algeria, Austria and DR Congo.

Once the last four places are filled, the knockout bracket will snap into focus. Ghana already know their possible opponents: Senegal if they win Group L, Portugal if they finish second, or Colombia if they slip to third. Egypt are paired with Australia, while Paraguay will face Germany. The round of 32 begins on Sunday local time and runs through 4 July, with the final set for 20 July. For the 28 teams already through, the waiting is over; for the rest, one more match will determine whether their World Cup continues or ends.