A New York Times investigation published on Saturday reveals the extent to which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio exercises de facto governance over Venezuela from Washington, controlling oil revenues, cabinet appointments and even social media posts. Since the US commando raid that captured President Nicolás Maduro in January, Rubio has maintained daily contact with interim leader Delcy Rodríguez, establishing what one US official reportedly called a ‘viceroy’-like authority. The arrangement funnels nearly all Venezuelan export earnings through the US Treasury, with Rubio’s team dictating how funds are released and which foreign companies may operate under sanctions exemptions.

The report details a financial architecture in which two trading firms, Trafigura and Vitol, handle most Venezuelan oil sales under an agreement structured by the Trump administration. Rubio personally decides the conditions for disbursing these revenues, effectively controlling the government’s payroll and budget. His influence extends to security matters: US officials used Venezuelan intelligence to target a leader of the Tren de Aragua criminal group, and Caracas extradited Maduro associate Alex Saab at Washington’s behest. Foreign policy messaging is also micromanaged—Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil deleted a social media post mildly critical of a US strike on Iran after the White House objected. Rodríguez herself shares draft tweets with Rubio’s office before publication.

Viewed from Havana, this model of economic coercion and elite co-optation is now being tested on Cuba. Secretary Rubio, a Cuban-American hardliner, demanded last week that the island’s government accept Washington’s reform agenda “before it is too late,” citing the 2021 protests. Simultaneously, an unusual public admission by Raúl Castro’s grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, has exposed an apparent backchannel: in an interview with USA Today, he declared his readiness to negotiate directly with Donald Trump, insisting his luxury lifestyle is funded by private friends, not state assets. The remarks provoked sharp rebukes from state television journalist Michel Torres and singer Israel Rojas, both loyalists who decried the bypassing of Cuba’s institutions, while Prime Minister Manuel Marrero confirmed the grandson’s role as part of a team with Raúl Castro’s mandate.

The Trump administration appears to be replicating its Venezuela playbook—installing or empowering a politically indispensable local figure who can deliver resource access and economic reforms while insulating Washington from direct governance costs. In Caracas, Rodríguez faces growing domestic demands for elections, which she can only vaguely promise “sometime.” US critics charge that the arrangement props up an unelected and deeply unpopular administration while diverting Venezuelan resources. In Cuba, the regime confronts an intensifying energy crisis that President Díaz-Canel blames on a “genocidal oil blockade,” even as Washington imposes new visa bans on senior military and interior officials. The dual approach—suffocating sanctions paired with selective engagement of dynastic insiders—now defines the administration’s Caribbean strategy, with no clear electoral exits in sight.