Venezuela is preparing to disclose a total public debt of $240 billion, a figure well above the $150–200 billion previously estimated by market analysts. The revelation, expected in early July alongside a long‑awaited macroeconomic framework, comes as the interim government under Delcy Rodríguez pursues what would be the largest sovereign debt restructuring on record, eclipsing Greece’s €200 billion default in 2012. Bond prices edged higher on the news, with sovereign notes trading around 55 cents on the dollar, though those levels exclude years of unpaid interest and remain far below par.

According to reports in the British financial press, the debt stock encompasses roughly $60 billion in defaulted sovereign and PDVSA bonds, approximately $40 billion in accumulated post‑default interest, plus arbitration awards and bilateral loans. The accompanying macroeconomic assessment will estimate the economy’s size at about $100 billion, implying a debt‑to‑GDP ratio above 200 percent. In an unusual departure from standard practice for a restructuring of this scale, the debt sustainability analysis has been prepared by the US advisory firm Centerview Partners rather than the IMF. London‑based analysts note that the absence of a Fund‑led assessment is likely to be read by bondholders as a signal that Caracas will request a significant haircut, while some Venezuelan opposition figures fear that negotiating outside the IMF’s auspices could weaken the country’s bargaining position.

The interim administration, led by Delcy Rodríguez and with her brother Jorge Rodríguez presiding over the National Assembly, aims to reach an agreement with creditors by the end of the year, paving the way for Venezuela’s return to international capital markets after nearly a decade of isolation. Viewed from Geneva, where the UN Human Rights Council is scheduled to debate the country’s situation on 26 June, the post‑Maduro order is characterised as an internal reconfiguration of chavista power rather than a verified democratic transition, with no electoral timetable or measures to guarantee judicial independence. This political ambiguity, Brazilian market participants caution, adds a layer of complexity to a process already made arduous by the long default period and the diversity of claims.

The restructuring plan is set to be published at the start of July, alongside the macroeconomic framework. The next concrete milestone will be the formal presentation to creditors and the commencement of negotiations, with bondholders scrutinising the proposed recovery values. The IMF, while not leading the process, has resumed technical engagement with Caracas and says it stands ready to assist, but its precise role remains undefined. Whether Venezuela can engineer a market re‑entry without the traditional anchor of a Fund programme will be tested in the months ahead.