In Indonesia, the supply of used cars listed on major platforms contracted 24% year-on-year in the first five months of 2026, falling to roughly 85,000 units, while buyer demand slipped only 6%. The imbalance has turned the market decisively in favour of sellers, stabilising prices after years of decline. The most affordable segments are under intense pressure: vehicles priced below Rp100 million now attract 10–11 prospective buyers per advertisement, and those between Rp100 million and Rp200 million draw six to seven, according to platform data from Jakarta.

The supply squeeze has structural roots. Improved credit quality at multifinance firms has reduced the flow of repossessed vehicles, a traditional source of used stock. Average loan tenors have lengthened to 4.5–5 years, delaying trade-ins. Most critically, the collapse of new-car sales during the 2020–2021 pandemic is now feeding through to a dearth of three-to-five-year-old vehicles entering the second-hand market. This dynamic is not confined to Indonesia; similar replacement-cycle bottlenecks are visible in other emerging economies where used supply depends on new-car financing and trade-in behaviour.

The scarcity is reshaping buyer preferences. In Indonesia, models with established reputations for low running costs—Toyota Avanza, Honda Brio, Suzuki Ertiga—dominate searches, while Chinese-brand used cars depreciate 20–30% faster than Japanese equivalents, a gap attributed to limited long-term track records. In Tehran, Iranian regulators highlight a different tension: domestically produced vehicles meet Euro 6 emissions standards yet remain fuel-inefficient, a consequence of restricted access to international engine technology and an ageing national fleet that blunts the impact of cleaner new models.

Viewed from mature markets, the depreciation landscape is starkly different. A French automotive data firm’s study of 2020 models shows battery-electric vehicles losing more than 60% of their value over five years—the Renault Zoe shed 62.8%—while some combustion-engine and hybrid models held value better. A US analysis of nearly one million transactions confirms that pure EVs depreciated 57.2% on average, whereas hybrids lost only 35.4%, outperforming the market average. In Buenos Aires, this divergence is shaping the reception of Chinese brands: hybrid registrations surged 314% in early 2026, and analysts note that the high hybrid mix helps Chinese marques retain 60.7% of value after three years, close to traditional competitors.

The blurring line between new and used is prompting platform responses. In Jakarta, a leading online marketplace has launched a new-car sub-category after finding that 66% of its users now consider both new and used vehicles in a single search. The Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show, opening on 30 July, will serve as a real-world test of whether trade-in incentives and new-model launches can unlock the supply logjam and recalibrate a market where, as one executive noted, “used cars have no factory.”