The United States launched a series of military strikes against Iranian targets and rescinded a licence that had permitted Iranian oil exports, after three commercial vessels were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on 7 July. The US Central Command described the strikes as a response to Iranian attacks on shipping, calling them a “clear violation of the ceasefire”. Oil prices jumped more than 5% on the news, with Brent crude surpassing $76 per barrel.

Washington, citing intelligence assessments, attributed the tanker attacks to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. A US official stated that the memorandum of understanding with Iran was “entirely performance-based” and that Tehran would only reap benefits if it exhibited good behaviour. Qatar and Saudi Arabia, whose flagged vessels were among those hit, publicly blamed Iran, with Doha summoning Iran’s deputy ambassador and holding Tehran “fully legally responsible”. Iran, through its foreign ministry, rejected the accusations as “unacceptable” and accused the US of violating the MoU by revoking the oil licence and conducting strikes, warning of “decisive measures” to protect its interests.

The immediate consequence was a sharp rise in crude prices as markets priced in renewed risk to the waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes. The UK Maritime Trade Operations raised the threat level for the strait to “severe”. The US Treasury’s revocation of General License X, which had allowed Iranian oil sales until 21 August, reimposed sanctions with a wind-down period until 17 July, cutting off a key revenue stream for Tehran. The strikes, which US officials said targeted air defences, coastal surveillance, missile sites, and port facilities, were described as four to five times larger in scale than those conducted in late June.

The escalation occurred against the backdrop of a fragile 60-day ceasefire and negotiation framework established by the 18 June MoU, which had paused hostilities and opened the strait to limited traffic. Viewed from Tehran, the US actions are seen as a breach of that agreement, with Iranian officials linking the resumption of talks to a halt in threats and Israeli operations in Lebanon. From Washington’s perspective, the attacks on shipping demonstrated that Iran was not honouring its commitment to free navigation, and the sanctions snapback was a necessary enforcement measure. The next round of indirect talks, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, had been suspended during the funeral rites for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose burial is scheduled for 9 July. Diplomats in the region note that the viability of the peace process now hinges on whether both sides can contain the cycle of retaliation and return to the negotiating table, though no date for resumed discussions has been set.