The United States is preparing for a military confrontation with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz that could extend for days or even weeks, according to US officials, after a 60-day ceasefire collapsed amid mutual accusations of violating a memorandum of understanding. The White House launched a second wave of strikes targeting infrastructure inside Iran for the first time in months, while Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. President Donald Trump declared the truce “over,” and his administration now frames the conflict as an open-ended confrontation to guarantee freedom of navigation through the world’s most important oil chokepoint.

Viewed from Washington, the escalation stems from a conviction that Iran’s hardline factions, dissatisfied with the MoU’s lack of tangible economic relief, pushed to reassert control over the strait. US officials told Axios that Tehran felt its leverage slipping as hundreds of tankers transited a southern route near Oman’s coast, prompting the Iranian side to open fire. The White House believes it now has greater room to escalate because the successful passage of those vessels has eased immediate fears of an oil price shock. In parallel, American officials note that none of Iran’s frozen assets have been released, as Tehran has not implemented the required nuclear steps under the deal, and that a separate US-brokered Israel-Lebanon agreement effectively neutralised the Lebanon-related clause of the MoU, further angering Iranian hardliners.

Iran’s leadership, by contrast, insists that the strait will reopen only under “Iranian arrangements,” as chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf stated on social media. Iranian officials accuse Washington of bad faith, claiming the US violated the MoU by unilaterally rerouting ships through the Omani corridor without coordination. Tehran’s position, as articulated by its senior negotiator, is that any attack will be met with a response, and that the waterway’s status is a sovereign matter. This fundamental disagreement over the interpretation of the strait clause has become the primary driver of the renewed hostilities, transforming a conflict that originally aimed at degrading Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities into a contest over maritime control.

The diplomatic track remains paralysed. Trump acknowledged that Iranian officials had made contact and “want to make a deal,” but he publicly questioned their reliability, calling them “unpredictable.” The US president also downplayed the nuclear dimension, asserting that Iran’s programme is “buried underground” after earlier strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and that only America possesses the equipment to extract nuclear material from the rubble. With the MoU inoperative and no new negotiations scheduled, the dossier is stuck in a cycle of military pressure and rhetorical brinkmanship. The immediate next steps are expected to be determined by whether Iran continues to target commercial shipping, a decision that US officials say will dictate the duration and intensity of the American campaign.