The three-week-old ceasefire between the United States and Iran collapsed into open hostilities on 8 and 9 July, as American forces struck some 170 military targets along Iran’s coastline and Tehran retaliated with drone and missile attacks on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan. Iranian health officials reported at least 14 dead and 78 wounded across five provinces, while Kuwait confirmed one civilian injured by falling debris. The exchange, the most intense since a memorandum of understanding was signed on 17 June, was triggered by attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week, which Washington attributed to Iran.

Viewed from Washington, the strikes were a calibrated response to what US Central Command described as Iranian “aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews” in a vital international waterway. President Donald Trump declared the interim agreement “over” during a NATO summit in Ankara, though he later signalled that American negotiators could continue talks. US officials told Axios the campaign could last days or weeks, depending on Tehran’s conduct, and was intended to “further degrade” Iran’s ability to threaten freedom of navigation. The White House also revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Iran to export oil, reversing one of Tehran’s key gains under the truce.

From Tehran’s perspective, the US actions violated the ceasefire and disrupted what the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy called a “gradual reopening” of the strait under Iranian supervision. The IRGC Navy claimed that transit had recovered to about 50 per cent of pre-war levels and warned that further American intervention would provoke a “crushing response”. Iran’s chief negotiator, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, stated that the strait “will be reopened only under Iranian arrangements, not through US threats”. Iranian officials also accused Washington of striking the perimeter of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, a claim the US military did not immediately address. The IRGC said its retaliatory strikes hit Patriot missile systems in Kuwait, an early-warning satellite antenna in Qatar, and fuel storage facilities in Bahrain, while Jordan’s military intercepted eight missiles launched from Iran.

The immediate consequence was a near-standstill in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas trade. Shipping data showed only a handful of vessels crossing on 9 July, with many switching off transponders, and war-risk insurers advised clients to suspend voyages. Brent crude prices surged more than 7 per cent, and maritime analysts warned that the perception of risk had effectively closed the waterway regardless of official statements. The escalation unfolded as Iran buried Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes on 28 February, and as mediators from Pakistan, Qatar and Oman worked to revive negotiations. The 60-day memorandum of understanding had left unresolved the central dispute over who controls security in the strait, and with both sides now using military force to shape the bargaining landscape, the path to a durable agreement remains highly uncertain.