The United States struck more than 80 targets inside Iran on the night of 7 July, triggering an immediate Iranian retaliation against American military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. US Central Command said the operation targeted air-defence systems, coastal radar, anti-ship missile batteries and over 60 small boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, describing it as a direct response to Iranian attacks on three merchant tankers transiting the strategic waterway. Within hours, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced a joint missile and drone operation against 85 US military facilities, including the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait, and claimed to have shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone. Air-raid sirens sounded across both Gulf states, and Kuwait’s military said its air defences intercepted incoming projectiles.

Viewed from Washington, the strikes were a calibrated punishment for what US officials called a “clear and dangerous violation” of the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed with Iran in June. The US Treasury also revoked a temporary licence that had allowed Iran to sell crude oil on international markets, giving Tehran until 17 July to wind down transactions. A senior American official, speaking anonymously, insisted that negotiators were still working “in good faith” towards a final settlement, but stressed that the interim deal was “entirely performance-based” and that Iran would see benefits only if it demonstrated “good behaviour”.

Tehran framed the American operation as a breach of the ceasefire and an attempt to distract from the mass funeral processions for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes on 28 February. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s lead negotiator, listed what he called major violations: the renewed oil sanctions, interference with Iranian “adjustments” in the strait, and continued Israeli operations in Lebanon. “The era of bullying and extortion is over. We don’t fold,” he wrote on social media. Iran’s joint military headquarters warned of a “crushing response” and declared that Tehran would not permit outside interference in the management of the strait, insisting that all vessels must use routes coordinated with Iranian authorities.

Gulf capitals reacted with alarm. Qatar summoned Iran’s deputy ambassador to protest what it called an “unacceptable attack” on its LNG tanker Al Rekayyat, and Saudi Arabia said its own vessel Wedyan had been targeted. Both held Iran fully responsible. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported that an unknown projectile struck one tanker, causing an engine-room fire, while two others sustained damage from drone and missile strikes. Benchmark Brent crude rose more than 2% in early Asian trading, reaching a two-week high, as markets priced in renewed risks to energy shipments through the narrow channel that carries roughly a fifth of global oil consumption.

The exchange of fire threatens to derail the painstakingly constructed truce that had paused a war ignited by the assassination of Khamenei. The memorandum, signed remotely on 17 June, provided for a 60-day cessation of hostilities, the reopening of the strait, and talks on a permanent peace. Those negotiations were expected to begin after the funeral, which concludes on 9 July with Khamenei’s burial in Mashhad. With the oil waiver revoked and both sides accusing each other of bad faith, the path to a final accord now appears deeply uncertain. The US says its forces remain “postured and prepared” to hold Iran accountable, while Tehran insists it will take “whatever measures necessary” to protect its national security.