On 12 July 2026, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed “until further notice” after its forces opened fire on the Cyprus-flagged container ship M/V GFS Galaxy for allegedly using an unauthorised transit lane. The United States responded with its largest round of airstrikes in a week, hitting roughly 140 military targets inside Iran and bringing the three-night total to more than 300. US Central Command maintained that the strait remains open and that commercial traffic is continuing, setting up a direct contradiction over the status of the world’s most important oil chokepoint.

Viewed from Washington, the military action aims to degrade Tehran’s ability to attack civilian shipping. CENTCOM said that over 140 vessels had crossed the strait in the preceding seven days and stressed that “Iran does not control” the international waterway. President Trump told NBC that Iranian negotiators had agreed to what he called a “completely ideal” deal the previous day, only to launch a drone attack on a vessel an hour after talks concluded. He characterised the latest US strikes as “very powerful”. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran “made a bad choice” and is now “paying the price”.

Iranian official statements frame the escalation as a defensive response to foreign meddling. The IRGC’s naval arm said the strait would remain closed “until the end of American interference in the region” and warned that any further US attacks would draw strikes on additional bases. Tehran also announced that passage through the strait now requires a permit from the Islamic Republic. In a retaliatory barrage, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at military sites in Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Oman – including a command-and-control centre in Jordan, a radar installation in Kuwait, and logistics hubs supporting US carrier operations in Oman’s Duqm port. An Iranian serviceman was reported killed in the US strikes.

Gulf states uniformly condemned the Iranian attacks. Saudi Arabia called them a “blatant violation of international law”, while Qatar, which had been mediating alongside Pakistan, reported three injuries from falling debris and warned that continued strikes could force it to step back from its diplomatic role. Jordan confirmed three Iranian missiles landed on its territory, and Oman, a traditional interlocutor, denounced the targeting of its soil. The escalation threatens the June ceasefire memorandum of understanding, which had tasked Iran with restoring safe passage in the strait in coordination with Muscat.

Energy market analysts note that the conflicting status of the strait – politically closed according to Iran, operationally open but constrained according to American messages – injects extreme uncertainty into global supply forecasts. The International Energy Agency had projected a supply surplus in 2027, but cautioned that sustained disruption at Hormuz could reverse that outlook. With each side linking freedom of navigation to core security demands, the diplomatic framework remains frozen. Mediation efforts continue but without a shared basis; the memorandum is effectively suspended, and further military exchanges are expected unless backchannel talks yield a breakthrough.