President Donald Trump has reached what US and Israeli officials describe as a “decisive fork” in the conflict with Iran, according to a report by Axios that is corroborated by multiple regional sources. The administration is weighing a proposed 10-day ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz against preparations for a large-scale joint military campaign with Israel. Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other regional mediators have presented the ceasefire proposal to both Washington and Tehran, two sources with direct knowledge of the effort told Axios. US officials say the White House is examining the offer while urging Israel to avoid actions that would close the diplomatic window. Simultaneously, the Pentagon has deployed dozens of additional fighter jets and aerial refuelling aircraft to the region, and Israeli military sources confirm the IDF is on high alert for a possible coordinated full-scale operation within days.

Viewed from Washington, the administration is under pressure to respond to the deaths of at least three US service members in the latest round of hostilities. Trump stated on Monday that he had ordered the Pentagon to make Iran pay “many times over” for each American killed. Yet ten consecutive nights of US airstrikes have failed to break Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices briefly surged past $90 a barrel after Iranian attacks expanded to commercial vessels and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Rising fuel costs are fuelling domestic discontent in the United States over a war that was already unpopular. Regional mediators warn that the cycle of retaliatory strikes is becoming deadlier and harder to contain with each exchange.

From Tehran’s perspective, the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that discussions are taking place but declined to provide details. A regional source quoted by Axios said momentum behind the ceasefire grew over the weekend but stalled after an Iranian missile strike in Jordan reportedly killed two US service members, prompting Washington to step back. Both sides appear to be using continued military action to strengthen their negotiating positions before any truce. Iran has signalled it will “respond with strength,” while US officials indicate strikes will continue for several more days in retaliation for American casualties. The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, have declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, opening a new front against Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping lanes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that any Iranian attack will be met with a broad Israeli response, raising the risk of the war expanding from the Gulf to the Red Sea and Israel.

The ceasefire proposal builds on a framework discussed in Muscat on 11 July, when the US asked Iran to publicly commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Those talks ended without agreement, and Iran subsequently attacked commercial ships, triggering the nightly US bombing campaign. The new plan would fully reopen both shipping lanes—southbound through Omani waters without Iranian attacks, and northbound through Iranian waters without a US naval blockade. During the 10-day pause, Washington and Tehran would negotiate a long-term mechanism for transit. One option under discussion would allow Iran to collect “reasonable service fees” for maritime security and environmental protection, modelled on the Strait of Malacca arrangement involving Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. Another variant would channel fees into a jointly administered fund with International Maritime Organisation involvement. Neither side has accepted the proposal, and the coming days are expected to determine whether the conflict escalates into a full-scale war or moves toward a temporary de-escalation.