President Donald Trump declared on Thursday that the United States would hold Iran responsible for any further attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement on commercial shipping, threatening “major military punishment” against both Tehran and the group. The statement, posted on Truth Social, came hours after the Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on the Saudi-flagged tankers Encelia and Layla in the southern Red Sea. Brent crude futures surged more than 6% to breach $100 per barrel for the first time since May, as traders priced in the risk of disruption to a second critical energy chokepoint alongside the already contested Strait of Hormuz.

Viewed from Washington, the Houthi escalation is a direct extension of Iran’s campaign to pressure global energy markets. Trump described the Yemeni faction as a “Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran” and noted that, after US strikes a year ago, the group had “acted very professionally and smart” — including during the current US-Iran hostilities — until this week’s attacks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a diplomatic gathering in Southeast Asia that the price Iran pays “will get higher every night” until Tehran accepts a peace deal. The US military conducted a twelfth consecutive night of airstrikes on Iranian missile and air-defence facilities, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed to have struck US military targets in Kuwait and Jordan in retaliation.

From the Houthi perspective, the naval blockade and tanker strikes are a response to Saudi Arabia’s air and sea embargo on Yemen. The group’s military spokesman, Yahya Saree, said the blockade was imposed on the principle of “an eye for an eye” and would apply to all vessels bound for Saudi ports. The Houthis, who control Yemen’s Red Sea coast including the Bab el-Mandeb strait, have framed their actions as part of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” against US and Israeli interests. Iranian officials, meanwhile, have warned that any attack on their infrastructure would trigger a “strong and decisive” response, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stating that if Iran cannot sell oil in the Gulf, “no one will.”

The immediate consequence has been a sharp tightening of maritime security across the region. Shipping data showed several tankers altering course to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow passage between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean through which millions of barrels of crude transit daily. This compounds the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has restricted traffic since the collapse of an interim truce two weeks ago. Analysts in London note that the dual-chokepoint pressure is stoking inflation concerns in advanced economies and placing Republican allies under strain ahead of US congressional elections. With neither Washington nor Tehran signalling readiness for renewed negotiations, and the Houthis pledging to intensify operations, the dossier remains in a phase of active military escalation with no diplomatic off-ramp in sight.