President Donald Trump has ceased privately comparing Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as potential successors and now speaks of Vance as the natural heir to his political movement, administration officials told US media. The change, they said, crystallised in mid-June when Vance, alongside presidential envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, helped broker a memorandum of understanding with Iran — a step the White House frames as progress toward ending the war. One senior adviser was quoted as saying that Rubio “wasn’t planning to run anyway, and he’d be even less likely to do so now.”

Viewed from within the Republican Party, Vance’s consolidation owes much to a sustained media offensive. In June alone he gave 33 interviews, ranging from conservative podcasts to a White House press briefing and appearances on HBO and ABC’s The View — clips of which, aides said, Trump watched and praised. A Navigator Research poll, conducted by a firm close to the Democratic Party, placed Vance’s net favourability among Republicans at 62 percent, just below Trump’s 65 percent and well above Rubio’s 51 percent. Vance has also raised approximately $70 million for the Republican National Committee, building a donor network that party strategists in Washington describe as a critical asset for any future primary campaign.

European diplomatic observers note that Rubio’s standing began to erode after two fruitless missions in April: his support failed to prevent Viktor Orbán’s electoral defeat in Hungary, and initial talks with Iran in Pakistan yielded no breakthrough. A new book by journalists Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan recounts an October 2025 dinner at which media mogul Rupert Murdoch, asked by Trump to compare the two men, called Rubio “brilliant” while saying Vance had “the potential to be great.” Rubio’s allies now acknowledge he lacks the campaign infrastructure — the “pipe hitters,” as one put it — that Vance has assembled. Pro-Israel conservative groups have expressed anger at Vance’s role in the Iran deal and his criticism of right-wing Israeli politicians, but Rubio’s evident reluctance to enter a primary contest limits their ability to field an alternative.

Analysts in Moscow, where state-linked media have covered the succession dynamics, frame the shift as evidence of Trump’s tightening control over the Republican field. Vance carries liabilities: his association with the unpopular Iran war, his ties to Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel, and a recent public feud with the Pope that could unsettle parts of the Christian base. Yet an early endorsement from Erika Kirk, widow of the assassinated conservative activist Charlie Kirk, and his tech-sector fundraising prowess give him organisational advantages. Vance has stated he will not decide on a 2028 run until after the 2026 midterm elections. For now, the internal balance within the administration has tilted decisively, even if no formal candidacy exists.