At the NATO summit in Ankara, US President Donald Trump announced the lifting of sanctions imposed on Turkey over its 2019 purchase of Russian S-400 air defence systems and signalled a willingness to sell Ankara F-35 stealth fighter jets. The move, which Trump described as a response to Turkey’s loyalty, reverses a policy that saw Washington expel Turkey from the F-35 programme in 2019 and impose CAATSA sanctions in 2020. The announcement was embedded in a display of personal rapport between Trump and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with Trump stating he attended the summit only because Erdogan was the host.

Viewed from Washington, the administration frames the shift as a step to repair ties with a NATO ally on the alliance’s southeastern flank. Turkish officials, for their part, regard the pledge as a diplomatic breakthrough that could restore access to advanced US technology and bolster Erdogan’s domestic standing amid a crackdown on the political opposition. In Jerusalem, however, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has mounted a public campaign against the sale, warning it would “destroy the balance of power in the Middle East” and describing Turkey as a regime influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood that threatens the Jewish state. Israeli defence planners, according to analysts cited in regional media, view the F-35 as a cornerstone of their qualitative military edge, and fear that Turkish acquisition would erode Israel’s air superiority and freedom of action.

Beyond the immediate triangle, the potential transfer carries wider regional implications. Turkish defence analysts note that Ankara has already demonstrated power-projection capabilities through its drone deployments in Libya, where Bayraktar TB2s and electronic warfare systems turned the tide of battle in 2019–2020 and established a permanent military footprint. An F-35 acquisition would not create a new capability from scratch but would validate and extend an existing one, potentially altering balances in the Eastern Mediterranean, Syria, and the Black Sea. In New Delhi, strategic observers point to Turkey’s deepening defence cooperation with Pakistan as a factor that could indirectly affect India’s security calculus.

The legal path to a sale, however, remains blocked by US legislation. Congress banned F-35 transfers to Turkey unless it divests the S-400 systems, and lawmakers from both parties have signalled they will oppose any executive waiver. Congressional sources indicate that a joint resolution of disapproval could be introduced, while Moscow’s end-user obligations on the S-400 deal further complicate any removal. The dossier now moves to a legislative test in Washington, where the administration’s ability to deliver on Trump’s pledge will be measured against entrenched congressional scepticism and Israel’s lobbying efforts.