President Donald Trump has declared it “ridiculous” for the United States to maintain its current level of support for NATO, writing on his Truth Social platform that the relationship “is not reciprocal” and that allies “were not there for us.” The post, published on 3 July, included a chart comparing US defence spending with that of a handful of other members and came less than a week before the alliance’s 32 leaders convene in Ankara on 7–8 July. The outburst crystallises a dispute that, according to European diplomats, has been simmering since the US-led war against Iran began in February, with several European governments restricting access to bases and airspace for American forces.

Viewed from Washington, the grievance is twofold. Trump and his officials argue that European allies have failed to share the military and financial burden of the Iran campaign while continuing to rely on US security guarantees. The White House has already begun scaling back its force commitments in Europe, withdrawing an aircraft carrier, refuelling aircraft and fighter jets, and launching a six-month review of its continental posture. On defence spending, the administration insists that all members must meet the target agreed at last year’s Hague summit of spending 5 percent of GDP on defence by 2035. Trump’s post singled out the disparity between the nearly $1 trillion US defence budget and the far smaller outlays of Britain, France, Italy and Poland.

European capitals and NATO’s leadership are attempting to demonstrate that they are responding. Secretary-General Mark Rutte has pointed to a $90 billion increase in defence spending by European members and Canada in 2025, bringing their combined total above $570 billion, and has stressed that the summit will focus on converting extra funds into combat-ready capabilities. In a parallel initiative, Canada and nine other partners have created a “Defence, Security and Resilience Bank” to channel at least $100 billion into defence investments, a move analysts in London interpret as an effort by middle powers to shore up the alliance as Washington’s financial commitment is expected to decline. Italy’s defence minister, Guido Crosetto, has signalled Rome’s willingness to participate in a new UN-mandated peace enforcement mission in Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, a step seen in European diplomatic circles as an attempt to address US security priorities beyond the immediate Iran theatre.

Turkish media report that Trump will hold a bilateral meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the eve of the summit, with the possible approval of US engine sales for Turkey’s Kaan fighter jet on the agenda. Ankara, which commands NATO’s second-largest army, is positioning itself as a pivotal player, hosting a gathering that will also address deterrence against Russia, continued funding for Ukraine, and cybersecurity. Yet European officials acknowledge that the summit could be overshadowed by the fragile ceasefire in Iran or by personal frictions between Trump and leaders such as Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Britain’s outgoing prime minister. The alliance, one senior NATO diplomat said, is “alive and kicking but a bit bruised,” with the Ankara meetings now set to test whether a rebalancing of transatlantic burdens can be translated into concrete commitments.