President Donald Trump declared on Wednesday that the interim ceasefire agreement with Iran was “over,” describing further negotiations as a “waste of time” and warning that the United States would “probably” launch additional strikes overnight. The remarks, delivered on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Ankara, came hours after US forces struck more than 80 Iranian targets in retaliation for attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures jumped more than five percent to above $78 a barrel, while shipping data showed at least four oil and gas tankers turning away from the waterway, a vital artery for global energy supplies.

Viewed from Washington, the escalation was triggered by what US Central Command described as a “clear and dangerous violation” of the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June. American officials attributed the strikes on a Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier, a Saudi-flagged crude tanker and a Liberian-flagged vessel to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In response, the US military targeted air defence systems, coastal radar installations, anti-ship missile capabilities and more than 60 IRGC fast boats. The Treasury Department also revoked a general license that had permitted limited Iranian oil sales, a key incentive under the truce, and gave Tehran until 17 July to wind down transactions. Trump, who had previously described Iranian leaders as “very rational,” now called them “scum,” “sick people” and “liars,” accusing them of misrepresenting private agreements on nuclear weapons.

Tehran’s account, articulated by the foreign ministry and senior negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, frames the American actions as a “flagrant violation” of the memorandum. Iranian officials argue that the US strikes, the reimposition of oil sanctions and what they term “violations of Iranian adjustments in the Strait” rendered key parts of the deal ineffective. The IRGC said it responded by launching missiles and drones at 85 US military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait, and claimed to have downed an American MQ-9 drone. Iranian state media reported explosions near the port city of Bushehr, close to the Kharg Island oil terminal, and confirmed the death of a Revolutionary Guard member in Mahshahr. Tehran also warned that any territory used to launch attacks against Iran would be considered a legitimate target, a message directed at Gulf states hosting US forces.

Regional and allied capitals reacted with alarm. Kuwait and Bahrain activated air defence systems and condemned the Iranian strikes as a threat to de-escalation efforts. Qatar, a mediator in the talks, summoned Iran’s deputy ambassador to protest the “unacceptable” attack on its tanker and called for a return to dialogue. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, standing alongside Trump, described the US strikes as “absolutely necessary,” while the alliance’s final communiqué insisted Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon and must respect freedom of navigation in Hormuz. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the exchange of attacks “further complicates” already delicate negotiations. In London, security analysts noted that Iran’s insistence on controlling transit through the strait — and its rejection of an Omani-proposed alternative corridor — remains the central obstacle to any durable settlement.

The memorandum, brokered with Pakistani mediation, had established a 60-day window for negotiating a permanent peace, including the status of Iran’s nuclear programme and the reopening of the strait. Talks were paused during the week-long funeral rites for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in the opening hours of the war in late February, and were expected to resume after his burial on 9 July. Trump said he would allow US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to continue contacts if they wished, but expressed deep scepticism about the process. The dossier now enters a phase of acute uncertainty, with the US president threatening to target civilian infrastructure and possibly seize Kharg Island, while Iran’s armed forces have pledged to respond to any new attack at a ratio of at least two to one.