President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that Cuba is “moving toward our orbit” after “many, many decades,” a remark delivered during the inauguration of the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in Medora, North Dakota. The same speech linked a sharp decline in fuel prices to what he described as a record exodus of oil tankers from the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that became a flashpoint in recent military confrontation with Iran. Trump offered no details on any bilateral negotiations with Havana, but his words were widely noted as a rhetorical shift after months of escalating economic and military pressure on the Caribbean island.

Viewed from Washington, the statement aligns with an administration strategy of using coercive measures to force political change. Since January, the US has imposed a total oil blockade on Cuba, triggering daily blackouts and paralysing transport, while the Treasury Department has sanctioned top political and military figures, including President Miguel Díaz-Canel. The Pentagon confirmed the presence of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the region, and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth earlier raised the possibility of seizing Cuban leaders. In his North Dakota remarks, Trump drew a parallel with the recent US operation in Venezuela that led to the detention of Nicolás Maduro, saying “we are doing just as well with the Islamic Republic of Iran” and that Cuba, too, was “very weakened.”

In Havana, the government has not officially responded to Trump’s latest comments. However, the context includes the recent approval by the Communist Party central committee and the National Assembly of a package of market-oriented economic reforms that analysts in Latin America describe as an attempt to emulate Vietnam’s model. The measures aim to expand the private sector and attract foreign investment amid what state media acknowledge is a grave crisis. From Moscow, Russian outlets note the inconsistency in Trump’s Cuba policy, recalling that his first administration halted the normalisation begun under Barack Obama, while also pointing to his willingness to engage with adversaries when it suits US interests.

European diplomatic observers view the combination of an energy embargo, financial sanctions, and naval posturing as a deliberate campaign to bring the Castro-era system to collapse. Le Figaro reports that the blockade has tightened to a degree not seen in decades, with the explicit goal of regime change. Trump’s reference to falling oil prices was tied to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, where he claimed the US now has “total control of everything,” heralding what he called the “beginning of America’s golden age.” He also denounced “socialist democrats” as spreading “communism like a cancer,” a remark that, in the context of Cuba and Venezuela, reinforces the ideological framing of his foreign policy.

The dossier remains open. No formal dialogue between Washington and Havana has been announced, and the Díaz-Canel government has yet to issue a reaction. The next concrete step is expected to be the official opening of the Roosevelt library on 4 July, coinciding with the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, an event likely to provide another platform for the administration’s messaging on hemispheric realignment.