Investors enter a week crowded with central bank decisions and top-shelf economic releases against a backdrop of renewed US-Iran hostilities that briefly sent Brent crude above $100 a barrel and pushed benchmark US borrowing costs to a 52-week high. Gold edged up to $4,073 an ounce on Friday but remains nearly 23% below its February level, squeezed between its traditional role as an inflation hedge and the upward pressure of rising real yields and a strong dollar. The dollar index held near a three-week peak, and the Nasdaq logged a second consecutive weekly loss as chip stocks fell sharply amid mounting unease about the durability of artificial-intelligence spending.

The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting headlines the policy calendar. Markets overwhelmingly expect rates to stay on hold, yet CME FedWatch pegs the probability of a September hike at roughly 80%, driven by oil’s resurgence and persistent labour-market strength. The same afternoon, the US releases its first estimate of second-quarter GDP and the core PCE price index for June—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The Bank of England follows on Thursday, likely voting 7-2 to keep its base rate at 3.75%, despite June CPI easing to a 15-month low of 2.6%; Governor Andrew Bailey must weigh the benign domestic print against the fresh energy-driven inflation risk. The Bank of Japan announces on Friday, with markets alert for a hawkish pivot after unofficial briefings.

Beyond the G3 central banks, Mexico publishes its timely GDP estimate and June trade data, while Brazil reports mid-July IPCA-15 inflation and June unemployment. In Europe, preliminary eurozone Q2 GDP arrives on Thursday. Corporate earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon will sharpen the focus on AI capital expenditure, a theme that last week drove the SOXX semiconductor index down more than 4% and contributed to a 2.7% weekly fall in India’s Sensex.

The immediate course for risk assets depends on Wednesday’s Fed statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. How policymakers characterise the balance between resilient growth and energy-led inflation threats will be parsed for any signal on a September move, while the path of crude oil and the security of the Strait of Hormuz remain the week’s unruly variables.