Taiwan’s defence ministry announced the launch of a five-day “Immediate Combat Readiness Exercise” on 22 June, training troops for a rapid shift from peace to war using live forces and real terrain. The manoeuvres, which run until 27 June, are based on a scenario in which China suddenly converts one of its regular military exercises around the island into an actual attack. The announcement coincided with a Chinese sortie of 21 military aircraft, including J-16 fighters and KJ-500 airborne early warning planes, 19 of which entered Taiwan’s southwestern airspace and the Western Pacific for what Beijing described as long-distance over-sea training. Taipei has described the exercise as part of a modernisation drive to make training more war-oriented, moving away from set-piece events.

The current drills come amid a broader pattern of Chinese military signalling. On the same weekend, state broadcaster CCTV aired the first footage of a DF-17 hypersonic missile launch from a training area in the Gobi Desert, a step that defence analysts in Beijing interpret as a demonstration of the weapon’s ability to defeat advanced air defences. Separately, China has stepped up naval activity east of Taiwan, sending four vessels in early June and conducting a scientific expedition on 16 June that state media explicitly linked to pushing back against Japan-Philippines negotiations on exclusive economic zones. The Chinese Global Times said such bilateral talks “violate the legitimate rights and interests of China”, while Japan and the Philippines maintain the discussions are a routine effort to define maritime boundaries. Taiwan has also expressed concern over the talks.

In the Middle East, an Iranian media report detailed a separate incident that has drawn the attention of regional security analysts. According to the account, Iranian F-4 and F-5 fighter jets penetrated deep into Kuwaiti airspace to strike a US logistics hub, flying at very low altitude under strict radio silence. The operation, which the report says took place after the US offensive began on 28 February, allegedly triggered friendly-fire confusion that led to the downing of three American F-15E aircraft by US or Kuwaiti forces. While the US has not formally confirmed the details, analysts in London note that if accurate, the episode reveals potential gaps in integrated air defence coordination that could be relevant to other theatres, including the Indo-Pacific.

Taiwan’s exercise is part of an annual training cycle that will culminate with the Han Kuang war games in August. The drills reflect Taipei’s assessment that the boundary between peacetime coercion and open conflict is increasingly ambiguous. China is expected to maintain high operational tempo ahead of the 1 July anniversary of the PLA Rocket Force. Talks between Japan and the Philippines on maritime boundaries are set to progress, with Beijing refusing to recognise any outcome affecting waters it claims as sovereign. The full extent of damage from the Iranian raid remains disputed, and US Central Command has yet to issue a public assessment.