The latest assessment from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assigns an 81% probability that the El Niño event now forming in the Pacific will reach "very strong" intensity between October and December 2026. That reading, matched by forecast models tracked by the World Meteorological Organization, places the event among the most powerful in the modern record. The immediate market response has been sharp: coffee futures posted their largest single-day gain since 2000 in early April, while in Brazil—the world's top producer of arabica—prices for basic vegetables have already climbed more than 100% year-on-year, reflecting crop damage from irregular weather.

Economists warn that the climate shock could ripple through global food supply chains well beyond 2027. Goldman Sachs analysts project a 15.8% rise in global food commodity prices, while Italy’s UniCredit flags potential price spikes of 50–100% for vulnerable crops such as rice, wheat, coffee and palm oil. Already, India’s monsoon season is running at a quarter of normal rainfall in some regions, threatening yields of staples. Low-income import-dependent countries, many still absorbing the cost of the Iran conflict, would bear the heaviest burden, with higher import bills squeezing household budgets.

In Colombia, the strain is landing on the electricity grid. The system operator XM reports that national power demand has hit historic records—an average of 262.65 gigawatt-hours per day in July—while hydro reservoirs are receiving inflows well below the long-term mean. The simultaneous maintenance shutdowns of the 1,000 MW Chivor and 1,250 MW Guavio hydro plants between late 2026 and mid-2027, at the height of the dry season, would leave the eastern region—including Bogotá—critically undersupplied. XM’s planning document uses the word “rationing” five times, warning that without both plants, demand cannot be met securely. The government has yet to announce emergency measures.

Brazil’s vast agricultural sector, a top global exporter, faces planting delays for soybeans and corn if the expected dry spell in the Centre-West materialises, shortening the second-crop maize window. Southern states, by contrast, could see destructive floods, a pattern seen during past strong El Niños. The result, analysts at Itaú BBA note, would be a squeeze on supply that pushes up grain prices. For crop-year 2026/27, the first indication of damage will come from satellite-derived soil moisture data and the pace of sowing, which begins in September. Commodity traders and food-security agencies alike are watching those early agronomic signals for evidence of the pricing pressures that computer models now anticipate.