Five months of hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed fuel and energy costs significantly higher for consumers on both sides of the Atlantic. In the United States, the average price of regular gasoline climbed to $4.019 per gallon by late July, a 35 per cent increase from the eve of the conflict, according to figures from the American Automobile Association. Across Italy, the business association Cgia calculates that households and companies will absorb nearly €29bn in additional electricity, gas and fuel expenses in 2026, assuming current prices hold. Petrol and diesel alone account for €13.6bn of the projected increase, a 20.4 per cent jump over the prior year, with electricity and gas adding another €15.2bn.

The mechanism is straightforward: the Strait of Hormuz normally carries more than 20 per cent of the world’s energy supplies, but ship traffic has collapsed amid the threat of attacks. On one recent Thursday, only six commercial vessels were recorded transiting the waterway, and insurance costs for tankers have soared. International crude benchmarks shot above $100 a barrel at points, with West Texas Intermediate touching $114.58 in early April before easing. The US, where fuel taxes are low, feels price swings immediately at the pump; in Europe, high pre-existing taxes cushion but do not eliminate the shock, leaving Italian motorists paying over €1.90 per litre for self-service petrol.

From Washington, Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics told NBC News that the war is costing the average American household more than $1,200 a year, split between higher fuel, groceries, transportation and interest payments as mortgage rates rise on inflation fears. In Italy, Cgia’s territorial breakdown shows that the industrial north bears the largest absolute burden – Lombardy faces €5.4bn in extra energy costs, Emilia-Romagna €3bn, and Veneto nearly €2.9bn – though in percentage terms the southern regions of Basilicata, Campania and Puglia are hit with increases above 21 per cent. Rome has already deployed €7bn in relief measures and is considering another €7bn tranche, contingent on Brussels granting a safeguard clause to overshoot deficit limits temporarily.

The outlook hinges on the security of the sea lane and on fiscal policy. US strategic petroleum reserves have been drawn down to their lowest level since the 1980s, limiting the scope for further release. Simultaneously, the Atlantic hurricane season threatens to compound supply disruptions. For Italy, the near-term milestone is the European Commission’s decision on fiscal flexibility, which would unlock additional support before the 2027 budget cycle. Market attention remains fixed on whether tanker traffic through Hormuz will partially resume or whether a further escalation forces oil prices back toward their spring peaks.