Two South American nations enter Thursday’s final round of group matches with their World Cup futures compressed into ninety minutes. Ecuador, still searching for a first goal of the tournament, confront an already-qualified Germany at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey knowing only a victory can keep alive realistic hopes of reaching the knockout stage. Later, in San Francisco, Paraguay meet Australia in a direct shootout for the second qualification place in Group D, with the loser left to rely on the uncertain arithmetic of the best third-placed sides.

Ecuador’s campaign has unravelled against expectations. They arrived in North America on a 19-match unbeaten run, yet a 1-0 defeat to Ivory Coast and a goalless draw with debutants Curaçao have left them on a single point and without a goal. The attacking trio of Enner Valencia, Gonzalo Plata and Moisés Caicedo has yet to fire, and the Argentine coach Sebastián Beccacece must now solve that drought against a German defence that conceded only once in two matches. Germany, by contrast, have already secured passage to the last 16 for the first time since 2014, recovering from a half-time deficit to beat Ivory Coast 2-1 after demolishing Curaçao 7-1. Julian Nagelsmann’s side, blending the creativity of Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz with the finishing of Kai Havertz and the impact of substitute Deniz Undav, are chasing a fourth perfect group stage in their history and a 12th consecutive victory.

Paraguay’s path has been more turbulent. A 4-1 opening loss to co-hosts United States was followed by a gritty 1-0 win over Turkey, achieved despite playing more than an hour with ten men after Miguel Almirón’s dismissal. The Newcastle United midfielder is suspended for the Australia match, placing the creative burden squarely on Julio Enciso and the goalscoring instincts of Matías Galarza. Australia, under Tony Popovic, opened with a 2-0 win over Turkey but were then outclassed by the Americans by the same scoreline. The Socceroos’ defensive organisation, anchored by Alessandro Circati, and the pace of Nestory Irankunda on the break will test a Paraguayan side that must win; a draw would send Australia through on goal difference.

The historical ledger offers little comfort to the South Americans. Ecuador’s only previous World Cup meeting with Germany ended in a 3-0 defeat in 2006, when the Europeans were hosts. Paraguay have never beaten Australia in five attempts, losing twice and drawing three times, most recently a 2-1 friendly defeat in Sydney in 2010. Yet the stakes now are incomparably higher. For the victor in San Francisco, a place in the round of 32 is guaranteed; for the defeated, a nervous wait begins to see whether three points will be enough to rank among the eight best third-placed teams. Ecuador’s equation is starker: anything less than a win leaves them almost certainly eliminated, and even a victory may not suffice if other results conspire against them.