Russian retail credit issuance surged by half in the first six months of 2026 compared with a year earlier, reaching 5.63 trillion roubles, according to Moscow-based research firm Frank RG. The acceleration was concentrated in June, when banks extended 1.2 trillion roubles in new loans, a 17 per cent month-on-month rise. Subsidised mortgage programmes alone topped 250 billion roubles, a 74 per cent jump from May, as borrowers rushed to secure family mortgage deals before an expected tightening of eligibility rules. The finance ministry has postponed the changes to 1 October, but the pull-forward effect already pushed half-year mortgage volumes to nearly 2.2 trillion roubles, 1.5 times the level of the same period in 2025.

The Russian credit expansion stands in sharp contrast to the consumer finance landscape in Argentina. Real credit card balances there contracted 3.4 per cent year-on-year in June, even as a modest 0.6 per cent monthly uptick broke a five-month losing streak, data from Buenos Aires consultancy First Capital Group show. The brief recovery was fuelled by aggressive bank promotions and interest-free instalment plans of up to 18 months, but it did not offset a 7.6 per cent real decline in the first half. Debit card payments fell 7 per cent in real terms over the past year, while transaction volumes dropped nearly 14 per cent, central bank figures indicate. Account-to-account transfers now represent more than half of retail payments, displacing plastic. Household delinquency has climbed to 12.1 per cent, concentrated in personal loans and credit cards, and banks are cancelling cards after two consecutive missed minimum payments, further shrinking the active card base.

Mexico offers a third trajectory. The mortgage portfolio hit a record 1.513 trillion pesos in May, a 4.9 per cent nominal annual increase, even as the central bank’s benchmark rate remains at 11.25 per cent, Banco de México data show. The portfolio has expanded by more than a fifth since May 2023, with delinquency at just 3.2 per cent, making housing loans a stable earnings stream for commercial banks. Social-interest housing credit grew 6.7 per cent in real terms, outpacing the 0.8 per cent rise in middle- and upper-tier mortgages, suggesting that public-sector co-financing schemes are sustaining demand among lower-income households.

The divergence plays out against a global backdrop of elevated credit card stress: US average rates near 22 per cent are forcing more borrowers to make only minimum payments, while Indian financial advisers warn of rising dependence as living costs climb. The next milestone for Russia’s credit cycle will be the 1 October deadline for revised family mortgage rules, which will reveal how much of the recent surge was borrowed from future demand. In Argentina, the trajectory of inflation and real wages will determine whether June’s promotional boost can translate into a sustained recovery in card-financed consumption.