Russian gasoline production has fallen to just 65 percent of peak summer demand, a daily shortfall of 40,000–45,000 tonnes, after the latest wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on 10 July hit the Ilsky refinery in Krasnodar, the Ust-Luga complex near Leningrad, a Rostov oil terminal, and ten tankers in the Sea of Azov. The deficit has widened sharply from 25 percent in June, according to industry sources and calculations by Reuters, as the campaign against energy infrastructure intensifies.

The strikes have forced the shutdown of Russia’s two largest gasoline producers—the NORSI refinery in Nizhny Novgorod and the Omsk plant—along with the Saratov refinery. With summer driving pushing daily consumption to 115,000–120,000 tonnes, the collapse in output has triggered a cascade of emergency measures. Moscow has imposed a full ban on diesel exports until 31 July, adding to existing prohibitions on gasoline and jet fuel shipments. To plug the gap, Russia is importing record volumes from Belarus—up to 6,000 tonnes of gasoline per day—and has begun seaborne purchases from India, while discussing supplies from Kazakhstan.

Queues have formed at filling stations across nearly all of Russia’s 83 regions. In the Black Sea resort of Anapa, Cossack units have been deployed to maintain order as panic buying empties pumps. The governor of Rostov evacuated residents near the burning port of Taganrog, warning that extinguishing the petroleum fire would take days. Prices rose 7 percent in June alone, with gasoline exceeding 100 roubles per litre in Crimea. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak publicly acknowledged “problems and a deficit” caused by drone strikes, while President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of seeking to “create a nervous situation in society.”

Industry sources expect the situation to improve in the second half of July as refineries resume operations and imports rise—provided no new attacks occur. The government is also considering lowering fuel standards to Euro-2 to boost output quickly. The next milestone to watch is whether the diesel export ban is extended beyond 31 July, and whether Ukraine sustains its tempo of strikes against an energy sector that now supplies only two-thirds of the country’s summer fuel needs.