Russia’s seaborne crude exports climbed to 4.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to 28 June, the highest volume since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to ship-tracking data. The surge, an increase of 780,000 bpd from the first quarter, helped sustain global supply amid disruptions to Middle East flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the value of those exports did not keep pace: weekly foreign-currency revenue fell to $1.9 billion, the lowest since March, as prices for the flagship Urals grade dropped sharply, tracking a broader decline in global benchmarks on expectations that a US-Iran truce could become permanent.

The export jump reflects a confluence of pressures. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries—including facilities in Ufa, Yaroslavl and Slavyansk-on-Kuban—have reduced domestic processing capacity, forcing crude that cannot be refined at home onto the export market. Moscow has acknowledged a “non-critical” fuel deficit. At the same time, Indian refiners, the world’s third-largest crude importers, turned to discounted Russian barrels to offset supply risks from the Hormuz crisis. Preliminary data from commodity analytics firms show India received a record 2.7 million bpd of Russian crude in June, up from roughly 2 million bpd in May, meaning Russian oil accounted for more than half of India’s total imports for the first time.

The redirection of flows has reshaped trade patterns. India’s overall crude imports have returned to pre-crisis levels, according to an HSBC Global Research note, as refiners replaced Middle Eastern grades with supplies from Russia, the United States, Oman, West Africa and South America. The UAE, meanwhile, lifted its own crude and condensate exports to an all-time high of around 3.7 million bpd in June, shortly after leaving OPEC, drawing on inventories and freed-up shipping lanes. But the flood of Russian oil is meeting resistance. A record 133 million barrels of crude is now held on tankers at sea, with vessels clustering off Egypt and Singapore, a sign that Moscow is struggling to place cargoes. Urals delivered to India fell to $82.47 a barrel, the lowest since mid-March, and prices from Baltic and Black Sea ports halved from early May levels.

The immediate outlook hinges on two factors. Asian refiners, including those in India, have already secured cargoes for July and August and are entering scheduled maintenance, limiting spot demand. More consequential is the fate of US sanctions waivers that currently permit purchases of Iranian crude; if these are not extended beyond mid-August, analysts in London expect Russia will be forced to offer deeper discounts to compete for Asian buyers. The temporary surplus of Middle Eastern crude released by the Hormuz reopening is expected to be absorbed as strategic reserves are replenished, but the rebalancing will test whether Russia can maintain export volumes without further eroding its oil revenue.