The median inflation forecast for Russia this year jumped to 6.2 percent from 5.3 percent in the Bank of Russia’s July survey of analysts, a deterioration that rippled across the entire forecast horizon. Growth projections were trimmed to 0.6 percent for 2026, and the expected average key rate for the year was raised to 14.5 percent from 14.1 percent. The survey, conducted among roughly 30 economists from leading banks and investment firms, also pushed back the return to the 4 percent inflation target to 2028–29, signalling that the central bank’s easing cycle has stalled.

The revision was driven largely by a fuel-price shock that is now feeding into broader consumer costs. The central bank itself noted that the pass-through of higher transport and logistics expenses was becoming visible in early-July inflation data, while business price expectations snapped a five-month decline, rising 4.4 percentage points to 20.2 percent. The oil-price assumption for taxation purposes was cut to $63 a barrel from $70, reflecting both softer global benchmarks and a heavier discount on Russian crude. In currency markets, the ruble weakened modestly, with the official dollar rate set at 77.96 roubles, though analysts left their year-end exchange-rate forecast almost unchanged at 78.4.

Viewed from Moscow, the survey cements expectations that the central bank will hold its key rate at 14.25 percent when it meets on 24 July, and may even need to resume tightening later in the year. The maximum deposit rate at the ten largest banks edged up to 12.79 percent in early July, a sign that lenders are already pricing in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Meanwhile, the business-climate indicator turned negative for the first time in months, and firms reported a slowdown in activity, even as investment continued to expand moderately.

In Mumbai, the picture is the opposite. Economists at ANZ, Citi and Standard Chartered have withdrawn calls for a rate increase at the Reserve Bank of India’s August meeting after consumer inflation averaged 3.9 percent in the April–June quarter, well below the RBI’s 4.2 percent forecast. Most institutions now expect the policy rate to stay at 5.25 percent through the fiscal year, though some warn that a sustained rise above 5.5 percent could revive tightening bets. The divergence underscores how commodity-price pass-through and domestic demand are creating distinct policy paths across large emerging markets.

The next factual milestone is the Bank of Russia’s rate decision on 24 July, followed by the RBI’s meeting on 3–5 August. Both will be scrutinised for any shift in forward guidance as central banks navigate the trade-off between sticky inflation and faltering growth.