Russia is actively considering a ban on diesel exports and, for the first time, fuel imports with subsidies, as Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have slashed domestic gasoline production by roughly 25 percent from June 2025 averages. The development marks a sharp escalation in the economic spillover of the war, turning the world’s third-largest crude producer into a potential fuel importer. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed at a televised government meeting that a diesel export ban and changes to tax legislation were being prepared to shore up the domestic market.

The attacks have forced unplanned refinery maintenance, reducing seaborne oil product exports by about 15 percent in the first half of June compared with the first half of May. While gasoline and jet fuel exports were already banned, diesel exports continued at roughly 3.25 million metric tons in April, with Brazil and Turkey among the main buyers. The Vedomosti newspaper reported that imports and corresponding subsidies were discussed at a meeting chaired by Novak on Monday, with the aim of capping fuel prices—a sensitive issue for the public and an unwanted trigger for wider inflation. Oil companies are tapping previously unused reserves and delaying maintenance to meet demand.

The shortages are no longer confined to frontline areas. In Crimea, Sevastopol has imposed curfews on public transport, shops, and cafes, and dimmed street lighting, citing security. Rationing has spread to Siberian regions: Omsk limits gasoline to 40 litres per vehicle and diesel to 80–200 litres depending on location, while Novosibirsk and Irkutsk are preparing similar measures. According to independent reports, at least 53 regions have introduced some form of fuel restriction. President Vladimir Putin addressed the strikes publicly for the first time, calling them an attempt to destabilise society and ordering additional government measures. The crisis is politically sensitive ahead of September parliamentary elections, and the central bank is monitoring inflationary pressure.

The government’s immediate focus is on legislative amendments to tax rules and a possible diesel export ban. The next factual milestone to watch is whether the diesel export ban is formally enacted and whether seaborne fuel imports materialise in June, as industry sources suggest, to alleviate the shortages.