President Trump declared the ceasefire over and ordered new strikes, which Iranian state media termed “renewed aggression”, sending crude prices sharply higher midweek. Brent touched $78.93 and WTI $74.36 before retreating to weekly gains of about 4.5%, as the immediate fear of disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reasserted itself. Before the conflict, the strait carried roughly 20% of global oil and product flows; Citigroup analysts note that product shipments through the chokepoint remain near 1 million barrels a day, well below pre-war levels.

The price spike was amplified by a rare divergence between crude and refined products. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel surged even as benchmark crudes eased, reflecting refinery outages in Russia from Ukrainian strikes and unplanned US refinery shutdowns, alongside peak Northern Hemisphere summer demand. In the United States, average gasoline hit $3.88 a gallon, the third-highest on record for this time of year, while diesel prices were the second-most expensive. A Russian ban on diesel exports further tightened global supply, with traders in London noting a bidding war for non-Russian cargoes.

Viewed from Washington, the fuel price surge has emerged as a political vulnerability for the administration ahead of November midterm elections. The White House publicly pressured retailers to cut prices and launched an investigation into potential gouging, while Trump claimed credit for Walmart’s price reductions. In Buenos Aires, analysts noted a dual effect: higher crude improves profitability for Vaca Muerta producers such as YPF, but stokes inflation and may push up interest rates. In Accra, the CEO of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies warned that price volatility is “deadly” for fuel dealers, who often buy at high prices only to see them fall before selling stock, eroding margins. In Rabat, industry figures said pump prices frequently move independently of global events, leaving consumers exposed to sudden increases that disrupt household budgets.

The trajectory of oil and fuel prices now hinges on two factors: the actual flow of crude and products through Hormuz, and the pace at which OPEC+ increases output. With US midterm elections approaching, the administration’s pressure on fuel costs is likely to intensify, but the market’s focus remains on whether the Strait of Hormuz disruption deepens or eases.