The World Meteorological Organization reports that marine heatwave coverage in the southwest Pacific in 2025 was the most extensive ever recorded in a year without an El Niño event. The annual mean surface air temperature was 0.37°C above the 1991–2020 average, making it the second-warmest year on record. The WMO calls this a “worrisome sign” as a potentially strong El Niño develops in 2026. The region’s last tropical glacier, in Papua, Indonesia, has shrunk to about two per cent of its 1988 ice area and is expected to disappear by early 2027.

Ocean warming accelerates sea-level rise—averaging 3.7 mm per year since 1999 in the region—and intensifies the rainfall extremes that flood coastal cities. In Accra, Ghana, recent floods triggered a public health emergency: contaminated water raised the risk of cholera and typhoid, stagnant pools became mosquito breeding sites, and displaced families faced overcrowding. The government declared a nationwide clean-up on 10–11 July 2026, ordering all ministers, MPs, and local executives to join desilting drains and clearing debris, explicitly linking the flooding to waste dumping that blocks drainage.

A parallel challenge is playing out in Montreal, where a water-main break in June 2026 led authorities to ask 1.3 million residents to reduce consumption. A United Nations University report, Global Water Bankruptcy 2026, argues that the world has entered a persistent state of hydrological deficit, with demand exceeding renewable supply and full restoration no longer feasible. It estimates that 2.2 billion people lack safe drinking water, 3.5 billion lack adequate sanitation, and 4 billion face severe scarcity at least one month a year. The desalination industry, now a $24–28 billion market with over 20,000 plants in 150 countries, is expanding rapidly, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, where Saudi Arabia aimed to boost capacity from 5.6 million to 8.5 million cubic metres per day between 2022 and 2025.

These pressures converge as the developing El Niño threatens to test water systems globally. Ghana’s clean-up and Montreal’s conservation appeals highlight demand-side efforts, while desalination’s growth—still largely fossil-fuelled—underscores the energy trade-offs of supply-side solutions. The WMO’s warning and the fate of Papua’s glacier provide near-term milestones for tracking whether 2026 will mark a further escalation in water stress.