Qatar will restore liquefied natural gas production to near-normal levels within a few weeks, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has told the Financial Times, signalling an easing of the energy supply shock that has kept European and Asian gas benchmarks elevated since early March. Only one damaged production train at the Ras Laffan complex will remain offline; the rest of the world’s largest LNG export facility is being prepared for restart as diplomatic progress reduces the risk of further disruption.

The recovery hinges on a direct communication hotline between Washington and Tehran, agreed during talks at Bürgenstock in Switzerland. The channel is designed to verify threats to vessels, counter disinformation during the demining of the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent hostile forces from obstructing shipping. Viewed from Doha, the hotline is the essential mechanism that will allow QatarEnergy to lift its state of emergency and cancel force majeure on supply contracts. Shipping through the strait is expected to return to normal patterns within 30 days of the US–Iran memorandum of understanding, though the prime minister cautioned that rebuilding commercial confidence will take longer.

Doha, which mediated alongside Pakistan in the US–Iran backchannel, insists that any future model for managing the strategic waterway must be discussed with Iran, Oman and the Persian Gulf states. Al Thani separately revealed a verification mechanism to prevent flare-ups in Lebanon, involving Beirut, US Central Command, Iran and the mediators, and warned that Israel is acting disproportionately instead of pursuing de-escalation. The broader regional objective, he said, is to construct a new security framework between the Gulf countries and Iran, underpinned by economic cooperation.

The Bürgenstock talks have laid the groundwork for negotiations toward a permanent US–Iran settlement, though the process remains in its early stages. Doha’s assessment is that regional security arrangements can be resolved faster than the nuclear file, which would be left for later detailed negotiation. Al Thani welcomed the concept of a $300bn investment fund for Iran but did not commit Qatari capital. The next factual milestone is the transition from interim understandings to structured permanent talks, for which no date has yet been set.